Sunday, June 14, 2009

What the hell is going on in Iran? Pt. 2

Is it a civil war? A coup? Brian Ulrich suggests the votes were rigged by the military: 

In other words, the often anti-democratic and militarily inclined forces which have been rising in Iran were threatened by the more traditional establishment, and acted to preserve their interests. We already saw, starting in 2005, how this movement had pushed together reformists and centrist pragmatists, resulting in Mousavi's alliance with the likes of Rafsanjani and Khatami's conservative 1997 opponent Ali Akbar Nateq-Nouri. If so, this was not a coup perpetrated by the clerical establishment, but by a rising hard-line counter-establishment that did not want a repeat of the 2006 elections for the Assembly of Experts.
UPDATE: Khamene'i's role in this affair is emerging as a key issue within analysis. Above, I followed Makhbalbaf's account, in which the Leader initially accepted the results. Gary Sick, however, credibly suggests that the Mousavi camp was lied to so as to make them complacent.
UPDATE: Just a quick clarification: "Military" in this case refers to the IRGC and basij militi
This is also supported by the Daily Kos:

Let me bring you up to date. Every single agency, in and outside of Iran, and practically everyone who knows anything about the nation has declared this thing a Sham. The vote wasn't stolen, the vote wasn't EVEN COUNTED. It was invented. This coup has been bought around by the guard, and supported by the Ayatollah. The actions take are indefensible, and a group of hardline radicals are ignoring the will of the Iranian people.
Even now the phone lines and internet connections have gone eerily dead, alongside the electricity for the entire city of Tehran. The police is out looking for Satellites, and communications from Iranians on Twitter, Facebook and through blogs have totally died out.
Make no doubt about it. Tehran is under martial law.
From the streets I have updates, a friend in Iran is a sports journalist for the immensely popular national football team. Due to the nature of his reporting, he has been practically ignored, and free to switch his reporting over to covering these events.
This is what he is telling me about what he has heard.
   * 1. The Green protesters have taken over at least two police stations in north of Tehran, the Guards are trying to take back the buildings.
   * 2. University dormitories across Iran have been attacked by the Revolutionary Guards.
   * 3. The building of the ministry of Industry, and a major telecommunication center, have been set on fire.
   * 4. Sharif University's professors have resigned on mass.
   * 5. Unrest in Rasht, Tabriz, Isfahan, Shiraz and every other major city.

So Tehran is under marital law and there is a possible civil war break out in Iran and all of that leads me to one more question - where is the media? Meet the (de) Pressed just spent 30-60 seconds on Iran and 5 minutes on "reinventing the Republican party". Why are they asleep at the switch? Fox News is talking about cholesterol or some non-sense . FWIW - Meet the (de) Pressed spent more time talking about Tim Russert than a possible civil war breaking out in Iran. These guys don't even want to be relavent anymore, do they?

update - CNN is talking about Healthcare reform. I could have turned the channel on anytime in the last 12 years and seen the same fucking thing.

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