Sarah Palin is nuts......

It's times like these that I'm glad I voted for Obama. Palin is not only uninformed about policy, but also irrational and possibly insane. Has there ever been another govenor walk away under similar circumstances? What on Earth posses a woman in an executive position to walk away from a very serious job? If the GOP wishes to remain a real party they will forget this unserious, ill informed and frankly frightening person.

Did the army cast a ballot this morning?

From ABC News:

It was interesting that the special forces - who normally take the side of Ahmadinejad's Basij militia - were there with clubs and sticks in their camouflage trousers and their purity white shirts and on this occasion the Iranian military kept them away from Mousavi's men and women.

In fact at one point, Mousavi's supporters were shouting 'thank you, thank you' to the soldiers.

One woman went up to the special forces men, who normally are very brutal with Mr Mousavi's supporters, and said 'can you protect us from the Basij?' He said 'with God's help'.

It was quite extraordinary because it looked as if the military authorities in Tehran have either taken a decision not to go on supporting the very brutal militia - which is always associated with the presidency here - or individual soldiers have made up their own mind that they're tired of being associated with the kind of brutality that left seven dead yesterday - buried, by the way secretly by the police - and indeed the seven or eight students who were killed on the university campus 24 hours earlier.

Quite a lot of policeman are beginning to smile towards the demonstrators of Mr Mousavi, who are insisting there must be a new election because Mr Ahmadinejad wasn't really elected. Quite an extraordinary scene.

If this is part of a larger trend this is huge news.

..By the time we got to Woodstock, we were half a million strong...

Hard to say exactly what is going on in Iran now. What we know for sure is that the protests are continuing and the militia are continuing to commit and attempt to incite violence.

One of the most interesting rumors going around this evening is coming from Twitter, where people on the streets of Tehran are claiming that the military is refusing orders to shoot protesters.

Case in point:

only baseej militia and Etellaat folowing orders - they cannot contain country without Army

in azadi sq the killing was by baseej ONLY - military did not react

This could be pretty big news if it turns out to be true. If the military decides to back the protesters its game over for the regime. No wonder A-Jad left the country.

If you get into trouble make a sound like a dying regime Pt. 4

What does a dying regime sound like?

It sounds like a man proclaiming twice in two days that the election was ordained by God and then deciding to investigate allegations of voter fraud on the third day. You can have God - you can have Fraud - but you can't have both:

But in a rare break from a long history of cautious moves, he rushed to bless President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad for winning the election, calling on Iranians to line up behind the incumbent even before the standard three days required to certify the results had passed.

Then angry crowds swelled in cities around Iran, and he backpedaled, announcing Monday that the 12-member Council of Guardians, which vets elections and new laws, would investigate the vote.

“After congratulating the nation for having a sacred victory, to say now that there is a possibility that it was rigged is a big step backward for him,” said Abbas Milani, the director of Stanford University’s Iranian studies program.

This is how a theocracy dies. Islamic Republic is done - the question remains as to what it will morph into - Islamist State? Secular Republic? Military dictatorship?

It's in the hands of the kids in the streets.

Fear and loathing in the Blogosphere has gone "green"...

..To support these guys:

The para military religious police killed their fellow protestors - so they burned the militia headquarters.

I think the key question that remains is this: where is the rubicon? The point beyond which negotiation becomes futile? The people have three ways to control the government - the ballot box - the jury box and the ammo box - where is Iran right now?

From the looks of things today I'd say they're crossing into ammo box territory.

Why this is not just another protest.....

Great Article from Jim Muir of the BBC on the differences between today demonstrations and the student protests of 1999 and 2003. This is why the regime is fighting so hard to maintain control.

On the face of it, the disturbances currently shaking Tehran in the wake of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's controversial re-election look very similar to the street clashes that erupted there in July 1999 and June 2003.

As happened then, thousands of angry and disillusioned people, their hopes for change frustrated, have taken to the streets, clashing with security forces and hardline vigilantes who roam the city on motorcycles.

Buses and banks have been burnt, and student dormitories raided by police or irregulars, as happened on those earlier occasions.

The 1999 and 2003 disturbances involved thousands of protesters, rather than the millions it would take to shake the Islamic regime seriously.

They petered out after about 10 days, and achieved nothing, in the face of stern repression.

Will that be the fate of the current protests, too?

But these protests include more than just angry students and there is more at stake than just some decisions about administration at Tehran U.

This time it is very different.

The protests are in reaction to specific political grievances involving senior politicians well-embedded in the Iranian system.

On Monday, they led to a peaceful mass demonstration in Tehran - despite an official ban - that by all accounts ran into hundreds of thousands, far bigger than any of the earlier protests, and too big for the authorities to disperse without causing potentially more serious repercussions.

The current protests bring together grassroots sentiment and the political level in a way that the earlier protests did not.

That carries the current dissension into the heart of the Islamic power system.

Heavyweight supporters

The man at the centre of the storm, presidential challenger and runner-up Mir Hossein Mousavi, is not some lightweight outsider.

Ahmadinejad supporters demonstrate outside the British embassy in Tehran on 15/6/09
Ahmadinejad supporters have also rallied in Tehran

He was Iran's prime minister from 1981 until 1989, and was generally given high ratings for running the country through almost all of the eight years of war with neighbouring Iraq.

One of his closest associates and backers, Ali-Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, is an even weightier figure who has been a major pillar of the Islamic Republic since its foundation.

Twice president, from 1989 to 1997, Mr Rafsanjani is a pragmatic conservative who currently heads two of the regime's most powerful bodies: the Expediency Council (which adjudicates disputes over legislation) and the Assembly of Experts (which appoints, and can theoretically replace, the Supreme Leader).

He also wields huge influence and economic clout behind the scenes.

But in this year's presidential campaign, Mr Rafsanjani was bracketed together with Mr Mousavi and lambasted vitriolically by Mr Ahmadinejad in televised debates.

Mr Mousavi was also supported by another two-term former president, the reformist Mohammad Khatami, who withdrew his own candidacy in Mr Mousavi's favour and is now also calling for the vote to be cancelled and re-run.

The same demand has been made by another of the election losers, Mohsen Rezaie, who for 16 years commanded the Revolutionary Guards, another of the regime's main pillars.

In addition to alienating reformist and centrist circles, Mr Ahmadinejad (the first Iranian president not to be a cleric) is also not uniformly backed by hardline conservatives, including the religious establishment in Qom.

Where he is believed to enjoy huge support is among the Revolutionary Guards Corps and its auxiliary basij (volunteer) militia, where he has built up a strong following and patronage.

His support among the military is such that many Iran analysts have portrayed what has happened as a kind of military coup from within the regime.

But Mr Ahmadinejad has also won much support among the poor by pursuing a populist political and economic policy, disbursing funds in rural areas in a manner that his critics say has added to Iran's woes by generating high inflation.

'Burning dilemma'

And so how will it all end?

Much will clearly now depend on whether the street demonstrations escalate, whether the authorities respond violently, and what decision emerges from the Council of Guardians, the highly-conservative oversight body which has 10 days to adjudicate appeals lodged by Mr Mousavi and Mr Rezai.

Ayatollah Khamenei has urged the Council to study the claims closely.

Its decision could provide him with a way out of a dangerous situation and avert an eventuality where Mr Ahmadinejad could emerge in such a powerful position that Ayatollah Khamenei's own standing could be undermined, with traditional balancing power centres eclipsed.

Much must be going on behind the scenes, involving key figures such as Mr Rafsanjani, from whom little has been heard since the results were announced.

If the confrontation remains unresolved, he and others may have to decide whether to throw their weight behind an effort that could tear apart and bring down the system in which they have a big stake, or trim their sails and accept a reduced status.

To avert an escalation, Ayatollah Khamenei may have to find a way either to persuade the losers and their backers and followers that the results were genuine and fair, or to pacify them by other means - perhaps by curbing Mr Ahmadinejad or diluting his policies in some way.

I think a lot depends on what happens tonight in the U.S. and tomorrow in Iran. Tonight president Obama is supposed to make a statement - I think he needs to be careful what he says but we'll see. And tomorrow there is supposed to another huge rally in Tehran, this time accompanied by a national strike of Mousavi's supporters. If Obama treds carefully, and if the strike happens tomorrow, I think it becomes almost impossible to dismiss this as just another protest or just people pissed at the outcome of an election. This may be the beginning of a 2nd Iranian revolution.

Q.What should the U.S. due right now?

A. Nothing. The U.S. and especially president Obama himself should remain as quiet as possible about the unfolding events in Iran. There is no upside to commenting; if he were to say something good about the protesters and they are eventually suppressed then he's left being forced to deal with a government in Tehran that he would have effectively declared illegitimate. On the other hand, if he recognizes the regime's "win" and the government collapses then how would he recognize the (presumably) more reform oriented government that takes its place? And all of this is to say nothing of latent anti-Americanism and suspicion that runs through Iranian society.

All and all, President Obama has so far followed a smart path. In the coming days the temptation to respond in favor of the protesters may grow. There will be intense pressure from Republicans to say or do something, maybe even something as rash as recognizing Mousavi as the winner. President Obama must resist the temptation to do this. Through sub cabinet spokesmen and the V.P., the White House can express concerns about the potential human rights violations against the protesters and also about the silencing of media. But through it all the president must remain silent and resist the temptation to take sides in the power struggle.