tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-72526567996050260662024-03-12T20:40:55.618-04:00Fear and Loathing in the Blogosphere"It's not enough to bash in heads, you've got to bash in minds"
---Captain HammerUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger136125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7252656799605026066.post-67019908143316737322011-01-30T12:26:00.001-05:002011-01-30T12:26:41.275-05:00Velvet Revolution 2.0?It is, apparently, on like Donky Kong, in Egypt:<br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://twistedsifter.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/01/protests-in-egypt.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="212" src="http://twistedsifter.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/01/protests-in-egypt.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br />
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<a href="http://globlogization.wikistrat.com/globlogization/2010/9/4/blast-from-my-past-the-country-to-watch-egypt-2006.html">Tom Barnett called it, back in 2006</a>:<br />
<blockquote><br />
Let me give you the four scariest words I can't pronounce in Arabic: <i>Egypt after Hosni Mubarak.</i> </blockquote><blockquote>Osama picked the time (9/11), and Bush picked the venue (Iraq), but this fight between radical Islam and globalization's integrating forces was preordained the day Deng Xiaoping set in motion China's economic rise almost three decades ago. You can't rapidly add billions of new capitalists to the global economy and pretend the Islamic Middle East will remain queerly disconnected forever, somehow fire-walled from that borglike assimilation. </blockquote><blockquote>And so, while resistance may be ultimately futile, it will be bloody as hell in the meantime, with Cairo--not Tehran--likely to become the next big flash point in this Long War. </blockquote><blockquote>Mubarak's "emergency rule" dictatorship is deep into its third decade, making him one of Egypt's most durable pharaohs. His succession plan is clear: Son Gamal tries to replicate Beijing's model of economic reform, forestalling political reform.<br />
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Read more: <a href="http://globlogization.wikistrat.com/globlogization/2010/9/4/blast-from-my-past-the-country-to-watch-egypt-2006.html#ixzz1CLejM9mM" style="color: #003399;">Thomas P.M. Barnett's Globlogization - Thomas P.M. Barnett's Globlogization - Blast from my past: "The Country To Watch: Egypt" (2006)</a> </div></blockquote><br />
Gamal is apparently now in England. For his part, his father appears to have dismissed most of his cabinet and appointed his<a href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704653204576112531410751272.html?mod=googlenews_wsj"> intelligence chief</a>, Omar Suleiman, as his new vice president.<br />
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Mubarak also appears to be letting the protests go on, provided protesters do not cross certain "red lines", such as storming government buildings. <br />
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The question that will have to be answered over the next few days is what model will Mubarak follow? <br />
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<b>If he follows the Shah model: </b>He'll do just enough damage to keep provoking the rioters as he barley hangs onto power over the next few weeks. The violence will increase, and slowly the military will come to side some faction of the protesters. In this scenario, Mubarak eventually succumbs to mob rule, and is forced into exile with a rough coalition of regime critics forced to step in to fill the vacuum.<br />
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<b>If he follows the Gorbachev model: </b>Mubarak will quickly accept that there is no way for him to hang onto power in the log term. He'll try to engineer a soft landing for the whole country and a graceful exit for himself. This is the model both that the U.S. probably prefers, and that virtually guarantees Mubarak a Noble Peace Prize.<br />
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<blockquote><div style="background-color: transparent; border: medium none; color: black; overflow: hidden; text-align: left; text-decoration: none;"></div></blockquote>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7252656799605026066.post-7584166274422471282011-01-27T17:30:00.000-05:002011-01-27T17:30:37.382-05:00Planning to Fail in Afghanistan, pt 12: Running to Stand Still<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.panys.org/alerts/scarred.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="240" src="http://www.panys.org/alerts/scarred.gif" width="320" /></a></div><br />
<u><b>Destroying the Village to Save It</b></u><br />
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Considering their failure the first time, its sad to see that the ISAF has brought the age old practice of "<a href="http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=zippo%20raid">zippo raids</a>" - pumped up on 50,000 pounds of steroids - to Afghanistan.<br />
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<a href="http://www.registan.net/index.php/2011/01/13/the-unforgivable-horror-of-village-razing/comment-page-1/#comment-389340">Destroy the village to save it:</a><br />
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<blockquote>Translated from obnoxious mil-speak, she is describing the village being intimidated by the Taliban, who are chased away by soldiers, then “cleared” by special forces, and leveled by massive aerial bombardment, apparently with no casualties. Nowhere in this account is there a sense that the villagers felt any ill-will toward the Americans beforehand—rather, Broadwell explicitly describes the village as being victimized by the Taliban <i>first</i>, then being completely obliterated by the Americans. In other words, rather than <i>actually clearing the village</i>—not just chasing away the Taliban but cleaning up the bombs and munitions left over—the soldiers got lazy and decided to destroy the entire settlement… “to give the men confidence.” </blockquote>Its little wonder that these sorts of activities have costs as much as <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/14/world/asia/14afghan.html?_r=1">$100 million dollars in damage</a> in the last 6 months.<br />
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<u><b>Tell Me How This Ends </b></u> <br />
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Back at the end of May, I had my own version of a '<a href="http://fearandloathingintheblogosphere.blogspot.com/2010/05/honorable-stalement-my-walter-cronkite.html">Walter Cronkite Moment</a>' as I realized that the war in Afghanistan possibly couldn't be won, and that even it could be, the U.S. was not fighting to win but instead was<a href="http://fearandloathingintheblogosphere.blogspot.com/2010/06/planning-to-fail-in-afghanistan-pt-7.html"> planning to fail</a>.<br />
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Today we see that planning to fail has evolved into a strategy of tying to blast our way out. If Obama was planning to keep his 2011 draw down date this would be less odious, but the administration has now shifted to keeping American forces in Afghanistan until at least 2014.<br />
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Apparently, the developing U.S. strategy is just to wait out the remainder of Karzai's administration and then hope for a reboot, of sorts, in 2014. In retrospect, backing <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Afghan_presidential_election,_2009">Karzai versus Abdullah </a>was probably a bad move. At this rate, the U.S. will be just wasting time - and burning through $100 billion per year - and watching 500 troops dies, per year - while we run out the clock on Karzai's administration. <br />
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7252656799605026066.post-41783027483227677072011-01-15T16:22:00.006-05:002011-01-26T18:19:35.007-05:00Why Gun Control is for the Innumerate: Statistics as Suppressing Fire<style>
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<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="border-collapse: collapse; width: 557px;"><colgroup><col style="width: 78pt;" width="78"></col> <col style="width: 101pt;" width="101"></col> <col style="width: 91pt;" width="91"></col> <col style="width: 92pt;" width="92"></col> <col style="width: 82pt;" width="82"></col> <col style="width: 64pt;" width="64"></col> <col style="width: 49pt;" width="49"></col> </colgroup><tbody>
<tr height="43" style="height: 43pt;"> <td class="xl66" height="43" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(247, 150, 70); border-color: -moz-use-text-color white white -moz-use-text-color; border-style: none solid solid none; border-width: medium 0.5pt 1.5pt medium; color: white; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 700; height: 43pt; text-decoration: none; width: 78pt;" width="78">State</td> <td class="xl66" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(247, 150, 70); border-color: -moz-use-text-color white white; border-style: none solid solid; border-width: medium 0.5pt 1.5pt; color: white; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 700; text-decoration: none; width: 101pt;" width="101">Firearms Death Rate per 100,000</td> <td class="xl66" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(247, 150, 70); border-color: -moz-use-text-color white white; border-style: none solid solid; border-width: medium 0.5pt 1.5pt; color: white; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 700; text-decoration: none; width: 91pt;" width="91">Overall Homocide PER 100K</td> <td class="xl66" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(247, 150, 70); border-color: -moz-use-text-color white white; border-style: none solid solid; border-width: medium 0.5pt 1.5pt; color: white; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 700; text-decoration: none; width: 92pt;" width="92">Percent of Homocide w/Gun</td> <td class="xl65" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(247, 150, 70); border-color: -moz-use-text-color white white; border-style: none solid solid; border-width: medium 0.5pt 1.5pt; color: white; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 700; text-decoration: none; width: 82pt;" width="82">Brady Score</td> <td style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(247, 150, 70); border-color: -moz-use-text-color white white; border-style: none solid solid; border-width: medium 0.5pt 1.5pt; color: white; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 700; text-decoration: none; width: 64pt;" width="64"><span class="font5">AW Ban</span><span class="font0"> </span></td> <td class="xl65" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(247, 150, 70); border-color: -moz-use-text-color -moz-use-text-color white white; border-style: none none solid solid; border-width: medium medium 1.5pt 0.5pt; color: white; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 700; text-decoration: none; width: 49pt;" width="49">Black</td> </tr>
<tr height="15" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl70" height="15" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow; border-color: white white white -moz-use-text-color; border-style: solid solid solid none; border-width: 0.5pt 0.5pt 0.5pt medium; color: red; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; height: 15pt; text-decoration: underline; width: 78pt;" width="78"><a href="http://www.statehealthfacts.org/profileind.jsp?cat=2&sub=32&rgn=13"><span style="color: red; font-family: Calibri;">Hawaii</span></a></td> <td align="right" class="xl72" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow; border: 0.5pt solid white; color: #000090; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 700; text-decoration: none; width: 101pt;" width="101">2.6</td> <td align="right" class="xl72" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow; border: 0.5pt solid white; color: #000090; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 700; text-decoration: none; width: 91pt;" width="91">2.61</td> <td align="right" class="xl72" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow; border: 0.5pt solid white; color: #000090; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 700; text-decoration: none; width: 92pt;" width="92">19.4</td> <td align="right" class="xl71" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow; border: 0.5pt solid white; color: #000090; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 700; text-decoration: none;">42</td> <td align="right" class="xl71" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow; border: 0.5pt solid white; color: #000090; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 700; text-decoration: none;">1</td> <td align="right" class="xl71" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow; border-color: white -moz-use-text-color white white; border-style: solid none solid solid; border-width: 0.5pt medium 0.5pt 0.5pt; color: #000090; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 700; text-decoration: none;">3.2</td> </tr>
<tr height="32" style="height: 32pt;"> <td class="xl68" height="32" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(253, 233, 217); border-color: white white white -moz-use-text-color; border-style: solid solid solid none; border-width: 0.5pt 0.5pt 0.5pt medium; color: blue; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; height: 32pt; text-decoration: underline; width: 78pt;" width="78"><a href="http://www.statehealthfacts.org/profileind.jsp?cat=2&sub=32&rgn=41">Rhode Island</a></td> <td align="right" class="xl67" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(253, 233, 217); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; width: 101pt;" width="101">3.4</td> <td align="right" class="xl67" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(253, 233, 217); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; width: 91pt;" width="91">2.41</td> <td align="right" class="xl67" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(253, 233, 217); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; width: 92pt;" width="92">61.5</td> <td align="right" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(253, 233, 217); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none;">45</td> <td align="right" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(253, 233, 217); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none;">0</td> <td align="right" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(253, 233, 217); border-color: white -moz-use-text-color white white; border-style: solid none solid solid; border-width: 0.5pt medium 0.5pt 0.5pt; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none;">6.4</td> </tr>
<tr height="30" style="height: 30pt;"> <td class="xl68" height="30" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(252, 213, 180); border-color: white white white -moz-use-text-color; border-style: solid solid solid none; border-width: 0.5pt 0.5pt 0.5pt medium; color: blue; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; height: 30pt; text-decoration: underline; width: 78pt;" width="78"><a href="http://www.statehealthfacts.org/profileind.jsp?cat=2&sub=32&rgn=23">Massachusetts</a></td> <td align="right" class="xl67" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(252, 213, 180); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; width: 101pt;" width="101">3.6</td> <td align="right" class="xl67" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(252, 213, 180); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; width: 91pt;" width="91">2.64</td> <td align="right" class="xl67" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(252, 213, 180); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; width: 92pt;" width="92">58.1</td> <td align="right" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(252, 213, 180); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none;">54</td> <td align="right" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(252, 213, 180); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none;">8</td> <td align="right" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(252, 213, 180); border-color: white -moz-use-text-color white white; border-style: solid none solid solid; border-width: 0.5pt medium 0.5pt 0.5pt; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none;">7.1</td> </tr>
<tr height="15" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl68" height="15" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(253, 233, 217); border-color: white white white -moz-use-text-color; border-style: solid solid solid none; border-width: 0.5pt 0.5pt 0.5pt medium; color: blue; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; height: 15pt; text-decoration: underline; width: 78pt;" width="78"><a href="http://www.statehealthfacts.org/profileind.jsp?cat=2&sub=32&rgn=8">Connecticut</a></td> <td align="right" class="xl67" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(253, 233, 217); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; width: 101pt;" width="101">4.2</td> <td align="right" class="xl67" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(253, 233, 217); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; width: 91pt;" width="91">2.6</td> <td align="right" class="xl67" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(253, 233, 217); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; width: 92pt;" width="92">54</td> <td align="right" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(253, 233, 217); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none;">53</td> <td align="right" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(253, 233, 217); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none;">3</td> <td align="right" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(253, 233, 217); border-color: white -moz-use-text-color white white; border-style: solid none solid solid; border-width: 0.5pt medium 0.5pt 0.5pt; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none;">10.4</td> </tr>
<tr height="15" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl68" height="15" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(252, 213, 180); border-color: white white white -moz-use-text-color; border-style: solid solid solid none; border-width: 0.5pt 0.5pt 0.5pt medium; color: blue; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; height: 15pt; text-decoration: underline; width: 78pt;" width="78"><a href="http://www.statehealthfacts.org/profileind.jsp?cat=2&sub=32&rgn=17">Iowa</a></td> <td align="right" class="xl67" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(252, 213, 180); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; width: 101pt;" width="101">5</td> <td align="right" class="xl67" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(252, 213, 180); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; width: 91pt;" width="91">1.36</td> <td align="right" class="xl67" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(252, 213, 180); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; width: 92pt;" width="92">47.5</td> <td align="right" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(252, 213, 180); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none;">14</td> <td align="right" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(252, 213, 180); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none;">0</td> <td align="right" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(252, 213, 180); border-color: white -moz-use-text-color white white; border-style: solid none solid solid; border-width: 0.5pt medium 0.5pt 0.5pt; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none;">2.8</td> </tr>
<tr height="15" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl68" height="15" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(253, 233, 217); border-color: white white white -moz-use-text-color; border-style: solid solid solid none; border-width: 0.5pt 0.5pt 0.5pt medium; color: blue; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; height: 15pt; text-decoration: underline; width: 78pt;" width="78"><a href="http://www.statehealthfacts.org/profileind.jsp?cat=2&sub=32&rgn=34">New York</a></td> <td align="right" class="xl67" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(253, 233, 217); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; width: 101pt;" width="101">5</td> <td align="right" class="xl67" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(253, 233, 217); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; width: 91pt;" width="91">4.61</td> <td align="right" class="xl67" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(253, 233, 217); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; width: 92pt;" width="92">57.8</td> <td align="right" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(253, 233, 217); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none;">50</td> <td align="right" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(253, 233, 217); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none;">8</td> <td align="right" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(253, 233, 217); border-color: white -moz-use-text-color white white; border-style: solid none solid solid; border-width: 0.5pt medium 0.5pt 0.5pt; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none;">17.2</td> </tr>
<tr height="15" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl68" height="15" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(252, 213, 180); border-color: white white white -moz-use-text-color; border-style: solid solid solid none; border-width: 0.5pt 0.5pt 0.5pt medium; color: blue; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; height: 15pt; text-decoration: underline; width: 78pt;" width="78"><a href="http://www.statehealthfacts.org/profileind.jsp?cat=2&sub=32&rgn=32">New Jersey</a></td> <td align="right" class="xl67" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(252, 213, 180); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; width: 101pt;" width="101">5.2</td> <td align="right" class="xl67" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(252, 213, 180); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; width: 91pt;" width="91">4.51</td> <td align="right" class="xl67" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(252, 213, 180); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; width: 92pt;" width="92">58.8</td> <td align="right" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(252, 213, 180); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none;">73</td> <td align="right" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(252, 213, 180); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none;">8</td> <td align="right" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(252, 213, 180); border-color: white -moz-use-text-color white white; border-style: solid none solid solid; border-width: 0.5pt medium 0.5pt 0.5pt; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none;">14.5</td> </tr>
<tr height="30" style="height: 30pt;"> <td class="xl68" height="30" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(253, 233, 217); border-color: white white white -moz-use-text-color; border-style: solid solid solid none; border-width: 0.5pt 0.5pt 0.5pt medium; color: blue; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; height: 30pt; text-decoration: underline; width: 78pt;" width="78"><a href="http://www.statehealthfacts.org/profileind.jsp?cat=2&sub=32&rgn=31">New Hampshire</a></td> <td align="right" class="xl67" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(253, 233, 217); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; width: 101pt;" width="101">5.5</td> <td align="right" class="xl67" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(253, 233, 217); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; width: 91pt;" width="91">1.39</td> <td align="right" class="xl67" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(253, 233, 217); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; width: 92pt;" width="92">30.8</td> <td align="right" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(253, 233, 217); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none;">9</td> <td align="right" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(253, 233, 217); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none;">0</td> <td align="right" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(253, 233, 217); border-color: white -moz-use-text-color white white; border-style: solid none solid solid; border-width: 0.5pt medium 0.5pt 0.5pt; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none;">1.4</td> </tr>
<tr height="26" style="height: 26pt;"> <td class="xl70" height="26" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow; border-color: white white white -moz-use-text-color; border-style: solid solid solid none; border-width: 0.5pt 0.5pt 0.5pt medium; color: red; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; height: 26pt; text-decoration: underline; width: 78pt;" width="78"><a href="http://www.statehealthfacts.org/profileind.jsp?cat=2&sub=32&rgn=43"><span style="color: red; font-family: Calibri;">South Dakota</span></a></td> <td align="right" class="xl72" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow; border: 0.5pt solid white; color: #000090; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 700; text-decoration: none; width: 101pt;" width="101">6.1</td> <td align="right" class="xl72" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow; border: 0.5pt solid white; color: #000090; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 700; text-decoration: none; width: 91pt;" width="91">2.34</td> <td align="right" class="xl72" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow; border: 0.5pt solid white; color: #000090; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 700; text-decoration: none; width: 92pt;" width="92">31.3</td> <td align="right" class="xl71" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow; border: 0.5pt solid white; color: #000090; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 700; text-decoration: none;">4</td> <td align="right" class="xl71" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow; border: 0.5pt solid white; color: #000090; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 700; text-decoration: none;">0</td> <td align="right" class="xl71" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow; border-color: white -moz-use-text-color white white; border-style: solid none solid solid; border-width: 0.5pt medium 0.5pt 0.5pt; color: #000090; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 700; text-decoration: none;">1.2</td> </tr>
<tr height="15" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl68" height="15" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(253, 233, 217); border-color: white white white -moz-use-text-color; border-style: solid solid solid none; border-width: 0.5pt 0.5pt 0.5pt medium; color: blue; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; height: 15pt; text-decoration: underline; width: 78pt;" width="78"><a href="http://www.statehealthfacts.org/profileind.jsp?cat=2&sub=32&rgn=25">Minnesota</a></td> <td align="right" class="xl67" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(253, 233, 217); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; width: 101pt;" width="101">6.5</td> <td align="right" class="xl67" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(253, 233, 217); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; width: 91pt;" width="91">2.22</td> <td align="right" class="xl67" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(253, 233, 217); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; width: 92pt;" width="92">66.4</td> <td align="right" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(253, 233, 217); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none;">15</td> <td align="right" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(253, 233, 217); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none;">0</td> <td align="right" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(253, 233, 217); border-color: white -moz-use-text-color white white; border-style: solid none solid solid; border-width: 0.5pt medium 0.5pt 0.5pt; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none;">4.7</td> </tr>
<tr height="15" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl68" height="15" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(252, 213, 180); border-color: white white white -moz-use-text-color; border-style: solid solid solid none; border-width: 0.5pt 0.5pt 0.5pt medium; color: blue; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; height: 15pt; text-decoration: underline; width: 78pt;" width="78"><a href="http://www.statehealthfacts.org/profileind.jsp?cat=2&sub=32&rgn=21">Maine</a></td> <td align="right" class="xl67" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(252, 213, 180); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; width: 101pt;" width="101">7.6</td> <td align="right" class="xl67" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(252, 213, 180); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; width: 91pt;" width="91">1.37</td> <td align="right" class="xl67" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(252, 213, 180); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; width: 92pt;" width="92">52.9</td> <td align="right" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(252, 213, 180); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none;">11</td> <td align="right" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(252, 213, 180); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none;">0</td> <td align="right" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(252, 213, 180); border-color: white -moz-use-text-color white white; border-style: solid none solid solid; border-width: 0.5pt medium 0.5pt 0.5pt; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none;">1.2</td> </tr>
<tr height="15" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl68" height="15" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(253, 233, 217); border-color: white white white -moz-use-text-color; border-style: solid solid solid none; border-width: 0.5pt 0.5pt 0.5pt medium; color: blue; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; height: 15pt; text-decoration: underline; width: 78pt;" width="78"><a href="http://www.statehealthfacts.org/profileind.jsp?cat=2&sub=32&rgn=29">Nebraska</a></td> <td align="right" class="xl67" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(253, 233, 217); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; width: 101pt;" width="101">7.9</td> <td align="right" class="xl67" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(253, 233, 217); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; width: 91pt;" width="91">2.89</td> <td align="right" class="xl67" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(253, 233, 217); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; width: 92pt;" width="92">63</td> <td align="right" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(253, 233, 217); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none;">8</td> <td align="right" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(253, 233, 217); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none;">0</td> <td align="right" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(253, 233, 217); border-color: white -moz-use-text-color white white; border-style: solid none solid solid; border-width: 0.5pt medium 0.5pt 0.5pt; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none;">4.6</td> </tr>
<tr height="15" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl68" height="15" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(252, 213, 180); border-color: white white white -moz-use-text-color; border-style: solid solid solid none; border-width: 0.5pt 0.5pt 0.5pt medium; color: blue; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; height: 15pt; text-decoration: underline; width: 78pt;" width="78"><a href="http://www.statehealthfacts.org/profileind.jsp?cat=2&sub=32&rgn=15">Illinois</a></td> <td align="right" class="xl67" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(252, 213, 180); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; width: 101pt;" width="101">7.9</td> <td align="right" class="xl67" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(252, 213, 180); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; width: 91pt;" width="91">6.1</td> <td align="right" class="xl67" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(252, 213, 180); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; width: 92pt;" width="92">75.2</td> <td align="right" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(252, 213, 180); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none;">28</td> <td align="right" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(252, 213, 180); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none;">0</td> <td align="right" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(252, 213, 180); border-color: white -moz-use-text-color white white; border-style: solid none solid solid; border-width: 0.5pt medium 0.5pt 0.5pt; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none;">14.9</td> </tr>
<tr height="15" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl68" height="15" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(253, 233, 217); border-color: white white white -moz-use-text-color; border-style: solid solid solid none; border-width: 0.5pt 0.5pt 0.5pt medium; color: blue; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; height: 15pt; text-decoration: underline; width: 78pt;" width="78"><a href="http://www.statehealthfacts.org/profileind.jsp?cat=2&sub=32&rgn=47">Vermont</a></td> <td align="right" class="xl67" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(253, 233, 217); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; width: 101pt;" width="101">8.1</td> <td align="right" class="xl67" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(253, 233, 217); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; width: 91pt;" width="91">2.58</td> <td align="right" class="xl67" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(253, 233, 217); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; width: 92pt;" width="92">18.8</td> <td align="right" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(253, 233, 217); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none;">8</td> <td align="right" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(253, 233, 217); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none;">0</td> <td align="right" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(253, 233, 217); border-color: white -moz-use-text-color white white; border-style: solid none solid solid; border-width: 0.5pt medium 0.5pt 0.5pt; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none;">1</td> </tr>
<tr height="15" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl68" height="15" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(252, 213, 180); border-color: white white white -moz-use-text-color; border-style: solid solid solid none; border-width: 0.5pt 0.5pt 0.5pt medium; color: blue; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; height: 15pt; text-decoration: underline; width: 78pt;" width="78"><a href="http://www.statehealthfacts.org/profileind.jsp?cat=2&sub=32&rgn=49">Washington</a></td> <td align="right" class="xl67" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(252, 213, 180); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; width: 101pt;" width="101">8.3</td> <td align="right" class="xl67" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(252, 213, 180); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; width: 91pt;" width="91">3.06</td> <td align="right" class="xl67" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(252, 213, 180); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; width: 92pt;" width="92">56.1</td> <td align="right" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(252, 213, 180); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none;">17</td> <td align="right" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(252, 213, 180); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none;">0</td> <td align="right" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(252, 213, 180); border-color: white -moz-use-text-color white white; border-style: solid none solid solid; border-width: 0.5pt medium 0.5pt 0.5pt; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none;">3.9</td> </tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 20pt;"> <td class="xl68" height="20" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(253, 233, 217); border-color: white white white -moz-use-text-color; border-style: solid solid solid none; border-width: 0.5pt 0.5pt 0.5pt medium; color: blue; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; height: 20pt; text-decoration: underline; width: 78pt;" width="78"><a href="http://www.statehealthfacts.org/profileind.jsp?cat=2&sub=32&rgn=36">North Dakota</a></td> <td align="right" class="xl67" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(253, 233, 217); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; width: 101pt;" width="101">8.6</td> <td align="right" class="xl67" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(253, 233, 217); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; width: 91pt;" width="91">1.41</td> <td align="right" class="xl67" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(253, 233, 217); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; width: 92pt;" width="92">50</td> <td align="right" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(253, 233, 217); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none;">4</td> <td align="right" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(253, 233, 217); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none;">0</td> <td align="right" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(253, 233, 217); border-color: white -moz-use-text-color white white; border-style: solid none solid solid; border-width: 0.5pt medium 0.5pt 0.5pt; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none;">1.2</td> </tr>
<tr height="15" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl68" height="15" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(252, 213, 180); border-color: white white white -moz-use-text-color; border-style: solid solid solid none; border-width: 0.5pt 0.5pt 0.5pt medium; color: blue; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; height: 15pt; text-decoration: underline; width: 78pt;" width="78"><a href="http://www.statehealthfacts.org/profileind.jsp?cat=2&sub=32&rgn=51">Wisconsin</a></td> <td align="right" class="xl67" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(252, 213, 180); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; width: 101pt;" width="101">8.6</td> <td align="right" class="xl67" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(252, 213, 180); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; width: 91pt;" width="91">2.79</td> <td align="right" class="xl67" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(252, 213, 180); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; width: 92pt;" width="92">64.5</td> <td align="right" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(252, 213, 180); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none;">10</td> <td align="right" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(252, 213, 180); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none;">0</td> <td align="right" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(252, 213, 180); border-color: white -moz-use-text-color white white; border-style: solid none solid solid; border-width: 0.5pt medium 0.5pt 0.5pt; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none;">6.2</td> </tr>
<tr height="15" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl68" height="15" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(253, 233, 217); border-color: white white white -moz-use-text-color; border-style: solid solid solid none; border-width: 0.5pt 0.5pt 0.5pt medium; color: blue; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; height: 15pt; text-decoration: underline; width: 78pt;" width="78"><a href="http://www.statehealthfacts.org/profileind.jsp?cat=2&sub=32&rgn=6">California</a></td> <td align="right" class="xl67" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(253, 233, 217); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; width: 101pt;" width="101">8.8</td> <td align="right" class="xl67" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(253, 233, 217); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; width: 91pt;" width="91">6.67</td> <td align="right" class="xl67" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(253, 233, 217); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; width: 92pt;" width="92">72.2</td> <td align="right" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(253, 233, 217); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none;">79</td> <td align="right" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(253, 233, 217); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none;">10</td> <td align="right" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(253, 233, 217); border-color: white -moz-use-text-color white white; border-style: solid none solid solid; border-width: 0.5pt medium 0.5pt 0.5pt; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none;">6.6</td> </tr>
<tr height="15" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl68" height="15" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(252, 213, 180); border-color: white white white -moz-use-text-color; border-style: solid solid solid none; border-width: 0.5pt 0.5pt 0.5pt medium; color: blue; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; height: 15pt; text-decoration: underline; width: 78pt;" width="78"><a href="http://www.statehealthfacts.org/profileind.jsp?cat=2&sub=32&rgn=9">Delaware</a></td> <td align="right" class="xl67" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(252, 213, 180); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; width: 101pt;" width="101">9</td> <td align="right" class="xl67" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(252, 213, 180); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; width: 91pt;" width="91">2.05</td> <td align="right" class="xl67" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(252, 213, 180); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; width: 92pt;" width="92">64.3</td> <td align="right" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(252, 213, 180); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none;">21</td> <td align="right" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(252, 213, 180); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none;">0</td> <td align="right" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(252, 213, 180); border-color: white -moz-use-text-color white white; border-style: solid none solid solid; border-width: 0.5pt medium 0.5pt 0.5pt; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none;">21.1</td> </tr>
<tr height="15" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl68" height="15" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(253, 233, 217); border-color: white white white -moz-use-text-color; border-style: solid solid solid none; border-width: 0.5pt 0.5pt 0.5pt medium; color: blue; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; height: 15pt; text-decoration: underline; width: 78pt;" width="78"><a href="http://www.statehealthfacts.org/profileind.jsp?cat=2&sub=32&rgn=37">Ohio</a></td> <td align="right" class="xl67" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(253, 233, 217); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; width: 101pt;" width="101">9.6</td> <td align="right" class="xl67" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(253, 233, 217); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; width: 91pt;" width="91">4.52</td> <td align="right" class="xl67" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(253, 233, 217); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; width: 92pt;" width="92">52.7</td> <td align="right" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(253, 233, 217); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none;">11</td> <td align="right" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(253, 233, 217); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none;">0</td> <td align="right" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(253, 233, 217); border-color: white -moz-use-text-color white white; border-style: solid none solid solid; border-width: 0.5pt medium 0.5pt 0.5pt; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none;">12.1</td> </tr>
<tr height="15" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl68" height="15" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(252, 213, 180); border-color: white white white -moz-use-text-color; border-style: solid solid solid none; border-width: 0.5pt 0.5pt 0.5pt medium; color: blue; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; height: 15pt; text-decoration: underline; width: 78pt;" width="78"><a href="http://www.statehealthfacts.org/profileind.jsp?cat=2&sub=32&rgn=39">Oregon</a></td> <td align="right" class="xl67" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(252, 213, 180); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; width: 101pt;" width="101">9.8</td> <td align="right" class="xl67" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(252, 213, 180); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; width: 91pt;" width="91">2.51</td> <td align="right" class="xl67" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(252, 213, 180); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; width: 92pt;" width="92">53.3</td> <td align="right" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(252, 213, 180); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none;">17</td> <td align="right" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(252, 213, 180); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none;">0</td> <td align="right" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(252, 213, 180); border-color: white -moz-use-text-color white white; border-style: solid none solid solid; border-width: 0.5pt medium 0.5pt 0.5pt; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none;">2</td> </tr>
<tr height="15" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl68" height="15" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(253, 233, 217); border-color: white white white -moz-use-text-color; border-style: solid solid solid none; border-width: 0.5pt 0.5pt 0.5pt medium; color: blue; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; height: 15pt; text-decoration: underline; width: 78pt;" width="78"><a href="http://www.statehealthfacts.org/profileind.jsp?cat=2&sub=32&rgn=7">Colorado</a></td> <td align="right" class="xl67" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(253, 233, 217); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; width: 101pt;" width="101">10.3</td> <td align="right" class="xl67" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(253, 233, 217); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; width: 91pt;" width="91">4.41</td> <td align="right" class="xl67" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(253, 233, 217); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; width: 92pt;" width="92">58.3</td> <td align="right" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(253, 233, 217); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none;">15</td> <td align="right" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(253, 233, 217); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none;">0</td> <td align="right" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(253, 233, 217); border-color: white -moz-use-text-color white white; border-style: solid none solid solid; border-width: 0.5pt medium 0.5pt 0.5pt; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none;">4.4</td> </tr>
<tr height="15" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl68" height="15" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(252, 213, 180); border-color: white white white -moz-use-text-color; border-style: solid solid solid none; border-width: 0.5pt 0.5pt 0.5pt medium; color: blue; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; height: 15pt; text-decoration: underline; width: 78pt;" width="78"><a href="http://www.statehealthfacts.org/profileind.jsp?cat=2&sub=32&rgn=18">Kansas</a></td> <td align="right" class="xl67" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(252, 213, 180); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; width: 101pt;" width="101">10.3</td> <td align="right" class="xl67" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(252, 213, 180); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; width: 91pt;" width="91">4.5</td> <td align="right" class="xl67" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(252, 213, 180); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; width: 92pt;" width="92">60</td> <td align="right" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(252, 213, 180); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none;">7</td> <td align="right" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(252, 213, 180); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none;">0</td> <td align="right" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(252, 213, 180); border-color: white -moz-use-text-color white white; border-style: solid none solid solid; border-width: 0.5pt medium 0.5pt 0.5pt; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none;">6.2</td> </tr>
<tr height="15" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl68" height="15" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(253, 233, 217); border-color: white white white -moz-use-text-color; border-style: solid solid solid none; border-width: 0.5pt 0.5pt 0.5pt medium; color: blue; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; height: 15pt; text-decoration: underline; width: 78pt;" width="78"><a href="http://www.statehealthfacts.org/profileind.jsp?cat=2&sub=32&rgn=46">Utah</a></td> <td align="right" class="xl67" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(253, 233, 217); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; width: 101pt;" width="101">10.4</td> <td align="right" class="xl67" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(253, 233, 217); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; width: 91pt;" width="91">1.9</td> <td align="right" class="xl67" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(253, 233, 217); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; width: 92pt;" width="92">49.1</td> <td align="right" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(253, 233, 217); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none;">0</td> <td align="right" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(253, 233, 217); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none;">0</td> <td align="right" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(253, 233, 217); border-color: white -moz-use-text-color white white; border-style: solid none solid solid; border-width: 0.5pt medium 0.5pt 0.5pt; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none;">1.4</td> </tr>
<tr height="15" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl68" height="15" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(252, 213, 180); border-color: white white white -moz-use-text-color; border-style: solid solid solid none; border-width: 0.5pt 0.5pt 0.5pt medium; color: blue; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; height: 15pt; text-decoration: underline; width: 78pt;" width="78"><a href="http://www.statehealthfacts.org/profileind.jsp?cat=2&sub=32&rgn=48">Virginia</a></td> <td align="right" class="xl67" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(252, 213, 180); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; width: 101pt;" width="101">10.5</td> <td align="right" class="xl67" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(252, 213, 180); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; width: 91pt;" width="91">5.23</td> <td align="right" class="xl67" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(252, 213, 180); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; width: 92pt;" width="92">69.4</td> <td align="right" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(252, 213, 180); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none;">17</td> <td align="right" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(252, 213, 180); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none;">0</td> <td align="right" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(252, 213, 180); border-color: white -moz-use-text-color white white; border-style: solid none solid solid; border-width: 0.5pt medium 0.5pt 0.5pt; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none;">20.2</td> </tr>
<tr height="15" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl68" height="15" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(253, 233, 217); border-color: white white white -moz-use-text-color; border-style: solid solid solid none; border-width: 0.5pt 0.5pt 0.5pt medium; color: blue; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; height: 15pt; text-decoration: underline; width: 78pt;" width="78"><a href="http://www.statehealthfacts.org/profileind.jsp?cat=2&sub=32&rgn=16">Indiana</a></td> <td align="right" class="xl67" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(253, 233, 217); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; width: 101pt;" width="101">10.6</td> <td align="right" class="xl67" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(253, 233, 217); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; width: 91pt;" width="91">5.06</td> <td align="right" class="xl67" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(253, 233, 217); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; width: 92pt;" width="92">69.6</td> <td align="right" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(253, 233, 217); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none;">6</td> <td align="right" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(253, 233, 217); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none;">0</td> <td align="right" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(253, 233, 217); border-color: white -moz-use-text-color white white; border-style: solid none solid solid; border-width: 0.5pt medium 0.5pt 0.5pt; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none;">9.2</td> </tr>
<tr height="15" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl68" height="15" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(252, 213, 180); border-color: white white white -moz-use-text-color; border-style: solid solid solid none; border-width: 0.5pt 0.5pt 0.5pt medium; color: blue; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; height: 15pt; text-decoration: underline; width: 78pt;" width="78"><a href="http://www.statehealthfacts.org/profileind.jsp?cat=2&sub=32&rgn=40">Pennsylvania</a></td> <td align="right" class="xl67" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(252, 213, 180); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; width: 101pt;" width="101">10.6</td> <td align="right" class="xl67" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(252, 213, 180); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; width: 91pt;" width="91">5.24</td> <td align="right" class="xl67" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(252, 213, 180); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; width: 92pt;" width="92">71</td> <td align="right" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(252, 213, 180); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none;">25</td> <td align="right" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(252, 213, 180); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none;">0</td> <td align="right" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(252, 213, 180); border-color: white -moz-use-text-color white white; border-style: solid none solid solid; border-width: 0.5pt medium 0.5pt 0.5pt; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none;">10.9</td> </tr>
<tr height="15" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl68" height="15" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(253, 233, 217); border-color: white white white -moz-use-text-color; border-style: solid solid solid none; border-width: 0.5pt 0.5pt 0.5pt medium; color: blue; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; height: 15pt; text-decoration: underline; width: 78pt;" width="78"><a href="http://www.statehealthfacts.org/profileind.jsp?cat=2&sub=32&rgn=24">Michigan</a></td> <td align="right" class="xl67" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(253, 233, 217); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; width: 101pt;" width="101">10.8</td> <td align="right" class="xl67" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(253, 233, 217); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; width: 91pt;" width="91">6.36</td> <td align="right" class="xl67" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(253, 233, 217); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; width: 92pt;" width="92">71.5</td> <td align="right" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(253, 233, 217); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none;">23</td> <td align="right" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(253, 233, 217); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none;">0</td> <td align="right" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(253, 233, 217); border-color: white -moz-use-text-color white white; border-style: solid none solid solid; border-width: 0.5pt medium 0.5pt 0.5pt; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none;">14.2</td> </tr>
<tr height="15" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl68" height="15" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(252, 213, 180); border-color: white white white -moz-use-text-color; border-style: solid solid solid none; border-width: 0.5pt 0.5pt 0.5pt medium; color: blue; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; height: 15pt; text-decoration: underline; width: 78pt;" width="78"><a href="http://www.statehealthfacts.org/profileind.jsp?cat=2&sub=32&rgn=45">Texas</a></td> <td align="right" class="xl67" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(252, 213, 180); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; width: 101pt;" width="101">10.9</td> <td align="right" class="xl67" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(252, 213, 180); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; width: 91pt;" width="91">6.07</td> <td align="right" class="xl67" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(252, 213, 180); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; width: 92pt;" width="92">64.8</td> <td align="right" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(252, 213, 180); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none;">9</td> <td align="right" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(252, 213, 180); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none;">0</td> <td align="right" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(252, 213, 180); border-color: white -moz-use-text-color white white; border-style: solid none solid solid; border-width: 0.5pt medium 0.5pt 0.5pt; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none;">12</td> </tr>
<tr height="15" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl68" height="15" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(253, 233, 217); border-color: white white white -moz-use-text-color; border-style: solid solid solid none; border-width: 0.5pt 0.5pt 0.5pt medium; color: blue; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; height: 15pt; text-decoration: underline; width: 78pt;" width="78"><a href="http://www.statehealthfacts.org/profileind.jsp?cat=2&sub=32&rgn=22">Maryland</a></td> <td align="right" class="xl67" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(253, 233, 217); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; width: 101pt;" width="101">12.1</td> <td align="right" class="xl67" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(253, 233, 217); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; width: 91pt;" width="91">9.37</td> <td align="right" class="xl67" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(253, 233, 217); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; width: 92pt;" width="92">74.2</td> <td align="right" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(253, 233, 217); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none;">52</td> <td align="right" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(253, 233, 217); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none;">1</td> <td align="right" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(253, 233, 217); border-color: white -moz-use-text-color white white; border-style: solid none solid solid; border-width: 0.5pt medium 0.5pt 0.5pt; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none;">29.7</td> </tr>
<tr height="15" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl68" height="15" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(252, 213, 180); border-color: white white white -moz-use-text-color; border-style: solid solid solid none; border-width: 0.5pt 0.5pt 0.5pt medium; color: blue; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; height: 15pt; text-decoration: underline; width: 78pt;" width="78"><a href="http://www.statehealthfacts.org/profileind.jsp?cat=2&sub=32&rgn=11">Florida</a></td> <td align="right" class="xl67" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(252, 213, 180); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; width: 101pt;" width="101">12.2</td> <td align="right" class="xl67" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(252, 213, 180); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; width: 91pt;" width="91">5.08</td> <td align="right" class="xl67" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(252, 213, 180); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; width: 92pt;" width="92">62</td> <td align="right" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(252, 213, 180); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none;">6</td> <td align="right" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(252, 213, 180); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none;">0</td> <td align="right" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(252, 213, 180); border-color: white -moz-use-text-color white white; border-style: solid none solid solid; border-width: 0.5pt medium 0.5pt 0.5pt; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none;">16.1</td> </tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 17pt;"> <td class="xl68" height="17" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(253, 233, 217); border-color: white white white -moz-use-text-color; border-style: solid solid solid none; border-width: 0.5pt 0.5pt 0.5pt medium; color: blue; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; height: 17pt; text-decoration: underline; width: 78pt;" width="78"><a href="http://www.statehealthfacts.org/profileind.jsp?cat=2&sub=32&rgn=35">North Carolina</a></td> <td align="right" class="xl67" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(253, 233, 217); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; width: 101pt;" width="101">12.3</td> <td align="right" class="xl67" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(253, 233, 217); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; width: 91pt;" width="91">6.23</td> <td align="right" class="xl67" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(253, 233, 217); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; width: 92pt;" width="92">59.5</td> <td align="right" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(253, 233, 217); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none;">19</td> <td align="right" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(253, 233, 217); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none;">0</td> <td align="right" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(253, 233, 217); border-color: white -moz-use-text-color white white; border-style: solid none solid solid; border-width: 0.5pt medium 0.5pt 0.5pt; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none;">21.6</td> </tr>
<tr height="15" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl68" height="15" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(252, 213, 180); border-color: white white white -moz-use-text-color; border-style: solid solid solid none; border-width: 0.5pt 0.5pt 0.5pt medium; color: blue; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; height: 15pt; text-decoration: underline; width: 78pt;" width="78"><a href="http://www.statehealthfacts.org/profileind.jsp?cat=2&sub=32&rgn=14">Idaho</a></td> <td align="right" class="xl67" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(252, 213, 180); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; width: 101pt;" width="101">12.7</td> <td align="right" class="xl67" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(252, 213, 180); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; width: 91pt;" width="91">2.15</td> <td align="right" class="xl67" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(252, 213, 180); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; width: 92pt;" width="92">56.7</td> <td align="right" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(252, 213, 180); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none;">2</td> <td align="right" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(252, 213, 180); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none;">0</td> <td align="right" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(252, 213, 180); border-color: white -moz-use-text-color white white; border-style: solid none solid solid; border-width: 0.5pt medium 0.5pt 0.5pt; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none;">1</td> </tr>
<tr height="15" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl68" height="15" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(253, 233, 217); border-color: white white white -moz-use-text-color; border-style: solid solid solid none; border-width: 0.5pt 0.5pt 0.5pt medium; color: blue; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; height: 15pt; text-decoration: underline; width: 78pt;" width="78"><a href="http://www.statehealthfacts.org/profileind.jsp?cat=2&sub=32&rgn=27">Missouri</a></td> <td align="right" class="xl67" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(253, 233, 217); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; width: 101pt;" width="101">12.8</td> <td align="right" class="xl67" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(253, 233, 217); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; width: 91pt;" width="91">6.15</td> <td align="right" class="xl67" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(253, 233, 217); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; width: 92pt;" width="92">68.8</td> <td align="right" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(253, 233, 217); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none;">4</td> <td align="right" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(253, 233, 217); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none;">0</td> <td align="right" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(253, 233, 217); border-color: white -moz-use-text-color white white; border-style: solid none solid solid; border-width: 0.5pt medium 0.5pt 0.5pt; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none;">11.5</td> </tr>
<tr height="15" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl68" height="15" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(252, 213, 180); border-color: white white white -moz-use-text-color; border-style: solid solid solid none; border-width: 0.5pt 0.5pt 0.5pt medium; color: blue; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; height: 15pt; text-decoration: underline; width: 78pt;" width="78"><a href="http://www.statehealthfacts.org/profileind.jsp?cat=2&sub=32&rgn=38">Oklahoma</a></td> <td align="right" class="xl67" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(252, 213, 180); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; width: 101pt;" width="101">13.2</td> <td align="right" class="xl67" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(252, 213, 180); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; width: 91pt;" width="91">5.28</td> <td align="right" class="xl67" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(252, 213, 180); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; width: 92pt;" width="92">57</td> <td align="right" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(252, 213, 180); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none;">2</td> <td align="right" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(252, 213, 180); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none;">0</td> <td align="right" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(252, 213, 180); border-color: white -moz-use-text-color white white; border-style: solid none solid solid; border-width: 0.5pt medium 0.5pt 0.5pt; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none;">8.1</td> </tr>
<tr height="15" style="height: 15pt; page-break-before: always;"> <td class="xl68" height="15" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(253, 233, 217); border-color: white white white -moz-use-text-color; border-style: solid solid solid none; border-width: 0.5pt 0.5pt 0.5pt medium; color: blue; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; height: 15pt; text-decoration: underline; width: 78pt;" width="78"><a href="http://www.statehealthfacts.org/profileind.jsp?cat=2&sub=32&rgn=12">Georgia</a></td> <td align="right" class="xl67" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(253, 233, 217); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; width: 101pt;" width="101">13.2</td> <td align="right" class="xl67" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(253, 233, 217); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; width: 91pt;" width="91">6.87</td> <td align="right" class="xl67" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(253, 233, 217); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; width: 92pt;" width="92">64.5</td> <td align="right" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(253, 233, 217); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none;">8</td> <td align="right" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(253, 233, 217); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none;">0</td> <td align="right" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(253, 233, 217); border-color: white -moz-use-text-color white white; border-style: solid none solid solid; border-width: 0.5pt medium 0.5pt 0.5pt; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none;">30.2</td> </tr>
<tr height="18" style="height: 18pt;"> <td class="xl68" height="18" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(252, 213, 180); border-color: white white white -moz-use-text-color; border-style: solid solid solid none; border-width: 0.5pt 0.5pt 0.5pt medium; color: blue; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; height: 18pt; text-decoration: underline; width: 78pt;" width="78"><a href="http://www.statehealthfacts.org/profileind.jsp?cat=2&sub=32&rgn=42">South Carolina</a></td> <td align="right" class="xl67" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(252, 213, 180); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; width: 101pt;" width="101">13.3</td> <td align="right" class="xl67" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(252, 213, 180); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; width: 91pt;" width="91">6.86</td> <td align="right" class="xl67" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(252, 213, 180); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; width: 92pt;" width="92">67.7</td> <td align="right" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(252, 213, 180); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none;">10</td> <td align="right" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(252, 213, 180); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none;">0</td> <td align="right" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(252, 213, 180); border-color: white -moz-use-text-color white white; border-style: solid none solid solid; border-width: 0.5pt medium 0.5pt 0.5pt; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none;">28.2</td> </tr>
<tr height="15" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl68" height="15" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(253, 233, 217); border-color: white white white -moz-use-text-color; border-style: solid solid solid none; border-width: 0.5pt 0.5pt 0.5pt medium; color: blue; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; height: 15pt; text-decoration: underline; width: 78pt;" width="78"><a href="http://www.statehealthfacts.org/profileind.jsp?cat=2&sub=32&rgn=28">Montana</a></td> <td align="right" class="xl67" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(253, 233, 217); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; width: 101pt;" width="101">13.7</td> <td align="right" class="xl67" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(253, 233, 217); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; width: 91pt;" width="91">3.24</td> <td align="right" class="xl67" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(253, 233, 217); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; width: 92pt;" width="92">71.4</td> <td align="right" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(253, 233, 217); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none;">4</td> <td align="right" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(253, 233, 217); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none;">0</td> <td align="right" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(253, 233, 217); border-color: white -moz-use-text-color white white; border-style: solid none solid solid; border-width: 0.5pt medium 0.5pt 0.5pt; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none;">0.7</td> </tr>
<tr height="15" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl68" height="15" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(252, 213, 180); border-color: white white white -moz-use-text-color; border-style: solid solid solid none; border-width: 0.5pt 0.5pt 0.5pt medium; color: blue; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; height: 15pt; text-decoration: underline; width: 78pt;" width="78"><a href="http://www.statehealthfacts.org/profileind.jsp?cat=2&sub=32&rgn=50">West Virginia</a></td> <td align="right" class="xl67" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(252, 213, 180); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; width: 101pt;" width="101">14.2</td> <td align="right" class="xl67" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(252, 213, 180); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; width: 91pt;" width="91">3.75</td> <td align="right" class="xl67" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(252, 213, 180); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; width: 92pt;" width="92">50.8</td> <td align="right" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(252, 213, 180); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none;">4</td> <td align="right" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(252, 213, 180); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none;">0</td> <td align="right" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(252, 213, 180); border-color: white -moz-use-text-color white white; border-style: solid none solid solid; border-width: 0.5pt medium 0.5pt 0.5pt; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none;">3.7</td> </tr>
<tr height="15" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl68" height="15" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(253, 233, 217); border-color: white white white -moz-use-text-color; border-style: solid solid solid none; border-width: 0.5pt 0.5pt 0.5pt medium; color: blue; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; height: 15pt; text-decoration: underline; width: 78pt;" width="78"><a href="http://www.statehealthfacts.org/profileind.jsp?cat=2&sub=32&rgn=19">Kentucky</a></td> <td align="right" class="xl67" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(253, 233, 217); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; width: 101pt;" width="101">14.2</td> <td align="right" class="xl67" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(253, 233, 217); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; width: 91pt;" width="91">5.7</td> <td align="right" class="xl67" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(253, 233, 217); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; width: 92pt;" width="92">62.7</td> <td align="right" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(253, 233, 217); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none;">2</td> <td align="right" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(253, 233, 217); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none;">0</td> <td align="right" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(253, 233, 217); border-color: white -moz-use-text-color white white; border-style: solid none solid solid; border-width: 0.5pt medium 0.5pt 0.5pt; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none;">7.9</td> </tr>
<tr height="15" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl68" height="15" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(252, 213, 180); border-color: white white white -moz-use-text-color; border-style: solid solid solid none; border-width: 0.5pt 0.5pt 0.5pt medium; color: blue; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; height: 15pt; text-decoration: underline; width: 78pt;" width="78"><a href="http://www.statehealthfacts.org/profileind.jsp?cat=2&sub=32&rgn=44">Tennessee</a></td> <td align="right" class="xl67" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(252, 213, 180); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; width: 101pt;" width="101">14.8</td> <td align="right" class="xl67" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(252, 213, 180); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; width: 91pt;" width="91">5.95</td> <td align="right" class="xl67" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(252, 213, 180); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; width: 92pt;" width="92">63.1</td> <td align="right" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(252, 213, 180); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none;">8</td> <td align="right" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(252, 213, 180); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none;">0</td> <td align="right" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(252, 213, 180); border-color: white -moz-use-text-color white white; border-style: solid none solid solid; border-width: 0.5pt medium 0.5pt 0.5pt; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none;">16.8</td> </tr>
<tr height="15" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl68" height="15" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(253, 233, 217); border-color: white white white -moz-use-text-color; border-style: solid solid solid none; border-width: 0.5pt 0.5pt 0.5pt medium; color: blue; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; height: 15pt; text-decoration: underline; width: 78pt;" width="78"><a href="http://www.statehealthfacts.org/profileind.jsp?cat=2&sub=32&rgn=52">Wyoming</a></td> <td align="right" class="xl67" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(253, 233, 217); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; width: 101pt;" width="101">15</td> <td align="right" class="xl67" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(253, 233, 217); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; width: 91pt;" width="91">2.17</td> <td align="right" class="xl67" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(253, 233, 217); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; width: 92pt;" width="92">27.3</td> <td align="right" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(253, 233, 217); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none;">10</td> <td align="right" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(253, 233, 217); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none;">0</td> <td align="right" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(253, 233, 217); border-color: white -moz-use-text-color white white; border-style: solid none solid solid; border-width: 0.5pt medium 0.5pt 0.5pt; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none;">1.4</td> </tr>
<tr height="15" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl68" height="15" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(252, 213, 180); border-color: white white white -moz-use-text-color; border-style: solid solid solid none; border-width: 0.5pt 0.5pt 0.5pt medium; color: blue; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; height: 15pt; text-decoration: underline; width: 78pt;" width="78"><a href="http://www.statehealthfacts.org/profileind.jsp?cat=2&sub=32&rgn=33">New Mexico</a></td> <td align="right" class="xl67" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(252, 213, 180); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; width: 101pt;" width="101">15</td> <td align="right" class="xl67" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(252, 213, 180); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; width: 91pt;" width="91">8.88</td> <td align="right" class="xl67" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(252, 213, 180); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; width: 92pt;" width="92">50</td> <td align="right" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(252, 213, 180); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none;">4</td> <td align="right" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(252, 213, 180); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none;">0</td> <td align="right" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(252, 213, 180); border-color: white -moz-use-text-color white white; border-style: solid none solid solid; border-width: 0.5pt medium 0.5pt 0.5pt; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none;">3.1</td> </tr>
<tr height="15" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl68" height="15" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(253, 233, 217); border-color: white white white -moz-use-text-color; border-style: solid solid solid none; border-width: 0.5pt 0.5pt 0.5pt medium; color: blue; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; height: 15pt; text-decoration: underline; width: 78pt;" width="78"><a href="http://www.statehealthfacts.org/profileind.jsp?cat=2&sub=32&rgn=4">Arizona</a></td> <td align="right" class="xl67" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(253, 233, 217); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; width: 101pt;" width="101">15.1</td> <td align="right" class="xl67" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(253, 233, 217); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; width: 91pt;" width="91">6.28</td> <td align="right" class="xl67" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(253, 233, 217); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; width: 92pt;" width="92">72.4</td> <td align="right" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(253, 233, 217); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none;">2</td> <td align="right" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(253, 233, 217); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none;">0</td> <td align="right" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(253, 233, 217); border-color: white -moz-use-text-color white white; border-style: solid none solid solid; border-width: 0.5pt medium 0.5pt 0.5pt; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none;">4.4</td> </tr>
<tr height="15" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl68" height="15" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(252, 213, 180); border-color: white white white -moz-use-text-color; border-style: solid solid solid none; border-width: 0.5pt 0.5pt 0.5pt medium; color: blue; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; height: 15pt; text-decoration: underline; width: 78pt;" width="78"><a href="http://www.statehealthfacts.org/profileind.jsp?cat=2&sub=32&rgn=5">Arkansas</a></td> <td align="right" class="xl67" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(252, 213, 180); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; width: 101pt;" width="101">15.2</td> <td align="right" class="xl67" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(252, 213, 180); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; width: 91pt;" width="91">6.4</td> <td align="right" class="xl67" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(252, 213, 180); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; width: 92pt;" width="92">62.7</td> <td align="right" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(252, 213, 180); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none;">4</td> <td align="right" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(252, 213, 180); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none;">0</td> <td align="right" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(252, 213, 180); border-color: white -moz-use-text-color white white; border-style: solid none solid solid; border-width: 0.5pt medium 0.5pt 0.5pt; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none;">15.8</td> </tr>
<tr height="15" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl68" height="15" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(253, 233, 217); border-color: white white white -moz-use-text-color; border-style: solid solid solid none; border-width: 0.5pt 0.5pt 0.5pt medium; color: blue; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; height: 15pt; text-decoration: underline; width: 78pt;" width="78"><a href="http://www.statehealthfacts.org/profileind.jsp?cat=2&sub=32&rgn=30">Nevada</a></td> <td align="right" class="xl67" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(253, 233, 217); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; width: 101pt;" width="101">16.3</td> <td align="right" class="xl67" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(253, 233, 217); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; width: 91pt;" width="91">7.37</td> <td align="right" class="xl67" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(253, 233, 217); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; width: 92pt;" width="92">64</td> <td align="right" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(253, 233, 217); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none;">9</td> <td align="right" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(253, 233, 217); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none;">0</td> <td align="right" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(253, 233, 217); border-color: white -moz-use-text-color white white; border-style: solid none solid solid; border-width: 0.5pt medium 0.5pt 0.5pt; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none;">8.3</td> </tr>
<tr height="15" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl68" height="15" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(252, 213, 180); border-color: white white white -moz-use-text-color; border-style: solid solid solid none; border-width: 0.5pt 0.5pt 0.5pt medium; color: blue; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; height: 15pt; text-decoration: underline; width: 78pt;" width="78"><a href="http://www.statehealthfacts.org/profileind.jsp?cat=2&sub=32&rgn=2">Alabama</a></td> <td align="right" class="xl67" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(252, 213, 180); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; width: 101pt;" width="101">17.5</td> <td align="right" class="xl67" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(252, 213, 180); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; width: 91pt;" width="91">5.61</td> <td align="right" class="xl67" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(252, 213, 180); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; width: 92pt;" width="92">64.3</td> <td align="right" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(252, 213, 180); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none;">16</td> <td align="right" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(252, 213, 180); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none;">0</td> <td align="right" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(252, 213, 180); border-color: white -moz-use-text-color white white; border-style: solid none solid solid; border-width: 0.5pt medium 0.5pt 0.5pt; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none;">26.3</td> </tr>
<tr height="15" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl68" height="15" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(253, 233, 217); border-color: white white white -moz-use-text-color; border-style: solid solid solid none; border-width: 0.5pt 0.5pt 0.5pt medium; color: blue; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; height: 15pt; text-decoration: underline; width: 78pt;" width="78"><a href="http://www.statehealthfacts.org/profileind.jsp?cat=2&sub=32&rgn=3">Alaska</a></td> <td align="right" class="xl67" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(253, 233, 217); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; width: 101pt;" width="101">17.8</td> <td align="right" class="xl67" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(253, 233, 217); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; width: 91pt;" width="91">5.63</td> <td align="right" class="xl67" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(253, 233, 217); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; width: 92pt;" width="92">45.9</td> <td align="right" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(253, 233, 217); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none;">2</td> <td align="right" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(253, 233, 217); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none;">0</td> <td align="right" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(253, 233, 217); border-color: white -moz-use-text-color white white; border-style: solid none solid solid; border-width: 0.5pt medium 0.5pt 0.5pt; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none;">4.2</td> </tr>
<tr height="15" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl68" height="15" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(252, 213, 180); border-color: white white white -moz-use-text-color; border-style: solid solid solid none; border-width: 0.5pt 0.5pt 0.5pt medium; color: blue; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; height: 15pt; text-decoration: underline; width: 78pt;" width="78"><a href="http://www.statehealthfacts.org/profileind.jsp?cat=2&sub=32&rgn=26">Mississippi</a></td> <td align="right" class="xl67" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(252, 213, 180); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; width: 101pt;" width="101">18.5</td> <td align="right" class="xl67" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(252, 213, 180); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; width: 91pt;" width="91">7.83</td> <td align="right" class="xl67" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(252, 213, 180); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; width: 92pt;" width="92">70.9</td> <td align="right" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(252, 213, 180); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none;">6</td> <td align="right" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(252, 213, 180); border: 0.5pt solid white; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none;">0</td> <td align="right" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(252, 213, 180); border-color: white -moz-use-text-color white white; border-style: solid none solid solid; border-width: 0.5pt medium 0.5pt 0.5pt; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none;">37.2</td> </tr>
<tr height="15" style="height: 15pt;"> <td class="xl68" height="15" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(253, 233, 217); border-color: white white -moz-use-text-color -moz-use-text-color; border-style: solid solid none none; border-width: 0.5pt 0.5pt medium medium; color: blue; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; height: 15pt; text-decoration: underline; width: 78pt;" width="78"><a href="http://www.statehealthfacts.org/profileind.jsp?cat=2&sub=32&rgn=20">Louisiana</a></td> <td align="right" class="xl67" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(253, 233, 217); border-color: white white -moz-use-text-color; border-style: solid solid none; border-width: 0.5pt 0.5pt medium; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; width: 101pt;" width="101">20.2</td> <td align="right" class="xl67" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(253, 233, 217); border-color: white white -moz-use-text-color; border-style: solid solid none; border-width: 0.5pt 0.5pt medium; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; width: 91pt;" width="91">12.74</td> <td align="right" class="xl67" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(253, 233, 217); border-color: white white -moz-use-text-color; border-style: solid solid none; border-width: 0.5pt 0.5pt medium; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; width: 92pt;" width="92">79.5</td> <td align="right" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(253, 233, 217); border-color: white white -moz-use-text-color; border-style: solid solid none; border-width: 0.5pt 0.5pt medium; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none;">2</td> <td align="right" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(253, 233, 217); border-color: white white -moz-use-text-color; border-style: solid solid none; border-width: 0.5pt 0.5pt medium; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none;">0</td> <td align="right" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(253, 233, 217); border-color: white -moz-use-text-color -moz-use-text-color white; border-style: solid none none solid; border-width: 0.5pt medium medium 0.5pt; color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none;">32.1</td> </tr>
<tr height="15" style="height: 15pt;"> <td height="15" style="height: 15pt;"></td> <td></td> <td></td> <td></td> <td></td> <td></td> <td></td> </tr>
</tbody></table><br />
This is a table showing g<a href="http://www.statehealthfacts.org/comparemaptable.jsp?ind=113&cat=2">un deaths per 100,000 across each U.S. state</a> and comparing it to other factors, <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gun_violence_in_the_United_States_by_state">including overall violent crime</a>, certain demographic factors, and the Brady Center's "score" of the state's gun control laws, with a higher score meaning more restrictions on a citizen's second amendment rights.<br />
<br />
This data is this table tells a story. It's the story of a country where cultural habits and beliefs differ significantly from state-to-state and where those cultural habits and beliefs manifest in different ways, including beliefs about the efficaciousness of gun control.<br />
<br />
It also tells us that gun control is a feel-good measure with little empirical basis.<br />
<br />
<b><u>Analyzing the Data</u></b><br />
<b><u><br />
</u></b><br />
One of the favorite targets of gun control supporters are so-called "assault weapons", which supporters believe are somehow less safe than "non-assault weapons".<br />
<br />
In reality, a true assault weapon is a selective fire weapon firing a medium range cartridge, such as the AK-47 or M-16. Civilian ownership of selective fire weapons has been strictly controlled since the National Firearms Act of 1934. What nutso gun control supporters call "assault weapons" are actually just self-loading pistols, shotguns and long guns, occasionally cosmetically similar but functionally distinctive from their NFA counterparts.<br />
<br />
But I digress. Let's just give the wack-jobs the benefit of the doubt for a moment and attempt to test their AWB (assault weapon ban) theories empirically.<br />
<br />
<b>Theory: </b>AWBs save lives.<br />
<br />
<b>Hypothesis: </b>If AWBs save lives, then<b> t</b>here should be a negative correlation between a state having an AWB and the overall deaths per 100,000 from firearms.<br />
<br />
<b>Operationalizing the Test: </b><a href="http://www.bradycampaign.org/stategunlaws/">The Brady Campaign</a> provides a scoring system that compares the restrictiveness of each state's guns laws on a total scale from 0 to 100, with 100 being the most restrictive. In the case of AWB, Brady scores states from 0-10, with 10 being the most restrictive. For the purpose of this test I am going to perform a Person's r test to look at the correlation between Brady's AWB score with a given state's death per 100,000. If Brady is correct the safest states should be those with the most restrictive laws and vice versa.<br />
<br />
<b>Findings: </b>I conducted a regression analysis in Excel to test the covariance between overall deaths per 100k and AWB scores. The overall findings, for all fifty states, was -.39, which suggests a medium negative correlation.<br />
<br />
However.<br />
<br />
The .-39 dosen't tell the whole story. While the number for all fifty states suggests that there is some connection between a state having an AWB and a relatively low number of gun deaths a deeper examination of the numbers reveals a problem. When we examine only the 10 states with the lowest number of guns deaths, the correlation drops to just -.15. If we expand to the 20 states with the lowest number of firearms deaths, we get a correlation of -.25. .25 is considered the very low end of covariance, and .15 is considered an ink blot test, so those numbers tend to indicate little connection between AWBs and guns deaths. Besides, shouldn't states with a higher AWB score be ranked higher? Shouldn't the state with the highest score (California) be ranked #1 (in lowest overall deaths) as opposed to barley cracking the top 20? Furthermore, shouldn't more than 50% of the states in the top 10 have AWBs in place?<br />
<br />
What this suggests is not that an AWB saves lives (note that the two states with the lowest number of gun deaths score low on Brady's AWB score), but rather that, for whatever reason, some states that happen to have lower gun death rates also have some other factor that makes them more likely to enact an AWB or perhaps support gun control more broadly. But as you can see from the chart above, 50% of the states in the top-10 score 0 on the AWB scale. Except for Hawaii, you'll notice that the 9 of ten states with the lowest gun deaths are also in the Northeast or Upper Mid West, a topic I will return to later.<br />
<br />
For now, let's turn to a broader question about whether or not their is evidence for gun control in general reducing gun crime.<br />
<br />
<b>Theory: </b>Gun control saves lives.<br />
<br />
<b>Hypothesis: </b>Other variables held constant, there should be a negative correlation between the percentage of homicides committed with guns and a state's Brady score.<br />
<br />
<b>Operationalizing the Test: </b>The chart provides us with two measures of gun homicides, one is the homicide rate per 100k and the other is the overall percentage of homicides committed with firearms. Notice that in many states the rate of gun homicides is less than 60% and in some states its as low as 18% (Hawaii) which suggests that even if all firearms were wished away, many states would still have a relatively high homicide rate in comparison to other OECD countries. Because of this relatively high non-gun homicide rate, I'm going to compare the overall Brady score both to overall homicides and to the percentage of guns used in homicides. If the Brady wackos are correct, gun control might not cut a state's homicide rate, but should at least reduce the percentage of homicides committed by firearms.<br />
<br />
<b>Findings: </b>There is no link between gun control and a state's homicide rate or rate of homicides committed with firearms. None.<br />
<br />
The Pearson's r between a state's Brady ranking and overall homicide rate is: -.02<br />
<br />
The Pearson's r between a state's Brady score and percentage of homicides committed with firearms is: .08<br />
<br />
The Pearson's r between a state's Brady AWB score and the percentage of guns used in crimes is .06<br />
<br />
<b>Conclusions</b>: There is no evidence gun control, at least gun control as it is defined and measured by the Brady Campaign, reduces either the homicide rate or even the percentage of guns used in crimes.<br />
<br />
So why do people in some regions of the country seem to think gun control is a good idea?<br />
<br />
<br />
<b><u>Conclusion:</u></b><br />
<br />
<b><u></u></b>The bottom line is that the evidence supports the position that gun control, at least as defined and measured by the Brady Campaign, has 0 effect on homicides committed with firearms. If measures such as AWBs mattered, we would see the evidence in state-by-state homicide rates. Instead, we see that just as many gun friendly as non-gun friendly states are among the top-10 safest and that the state with the most Brady points is 18th lowest in overall gun deaths.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7252656799605026066.post-41201162425424104532010-12-14T05:23:00.000-05:002010-12-14T05:23:33.125-05:00Clinton: "Don't worry Barry, I got it"<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.reuters.com/resources/r/?m=02&d=20101210&t=2&i=272439186&w=460&fh=&fw=&ll=&pl=&r=2010-12-10T222829Z_01_BTRE6B91QFQ00_RTROPTP_0_USA-TAXES-OBAMA-CLINTON" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><br />
</a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/2010/12/11/us/politics/CLINTON-1292022300047/CLINTON-1292022300047-articleLarge.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="186" src="http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/2010/12/11/us/politics/CLINTON-1292022300047/CLINTON-1292022300047-articleLarge.jpg" width="320" /> </a> </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><br />
It was, to put it mildly, odd.<br />
<br />
A sitting president c<a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/12/10/AR2010121007172.html">alls in a former president to address a press gaggle at the White House. During this briefing the current president lets the whole world know that he's late for a Christmas party, so he heads out, leaving the press - and the country - in the hands of a former president.</a><br />
<br />
<blockquote> After a few minutes, Obama seemed to conclude that he would be better served by being out of the picture than as a bystander. "I've been keeping the first lady waiting for about half an hour, so I'm going to take off," he said. <br />
</blockquote><blockquote>Clinton responded, "Well, I - I don't want to make her mad. Please go." </blockquote><br />
One of the results was the awful visual above - an image of a president turning away from the podium during time of war and recession - a picture just this side of abdication.<br />
<br />
Whomever came up with the idea for this press conference ought to hand in their resignation post haste. It was unprofessional and decidedly presidential. Really, you're the president, the party isn't going to start without you and surrendering your podium and your presidential seal in your press room in your White House sends a terrible signal.<br />
<br />
Ironically, the deal that Obama negotiated with congress to extend the Bush tax cuts while cutting payroll tax and providing a default stimulus could be <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/12/09/AR2010120904472.html?hpid=topnews">an outstanding political coup for the administration</a>. <br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<blockquote></blockquote><br />
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7252656799605026066.post-12072482808742211372010-08-28T02:04:00.001-04:002010-08-28T02:04:16.470-04:00Obama's Middle East End Game, ctd.<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://frontpagemag.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/03/obama_and_israel.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="248" src="http://frontpagemag.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/03/obama_and_israel.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<b><br />
</b><br />
<b>Introduction: On the Brink</b><br />
<br />
Like Sisyphus, Obama is moving his grand strategy for the Middle East closer to the top of mountain. It's possible<a href="http://www.haaretz.com/news/diplomacy-defense/report-u-s-assures-israel-nuclear-iran-a-year-away-1.309155"> he's walked Israel back their coming war with Iran</a>, he's made <a href="http://www.haaretz.com/news/diplomacy-defense/report-u-s-assures-israel-nuclear-iran-a-year-away-1.309155">Russia responsible for monitoring Iran's nuclear program</a> - <a href="http://fearandloathingintheblogosphere.blogspot.com/2010/07/coming-divsion-of-labor-israeli.html">and Russia does not want a nuclear Iran</a> - and he's begun a "deck clearing" for building a regional security alliance to contain Iran.<br />
<br />
<b>Israel Decides to Dance With the One that Brought 'em</b><br />
<br />
Earlier this summer I was <a href="http://fearandloathingintheblogosphere.blogspot.com/2010/07/iran-israel-gulf-states-and-new-big.html">one</a> of a <a href="http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2010/09/the-point-of-no-return/8186">cacophony of voices</a> who believed that Israel was probably on the verge of striking Iran's nascent nuclear program. I even ventured to guess that Israel would do with the tacit approval or <a href="http://fearandloathingintheblogosphere.blogspot.com/2010/04/planning-to-fail-in-afghanistan-pt-3.html">even active support</a> of the U.S. and the Gulf States. I assumed that Israel really did not trust MAD to keep them secure vis-a-vis a nuclear Iran and I assumed that once the Gulf States got on board it was only a matter of time before the JDAMs started falling.<br />
<br />
I was probably wrong.<br />
<br />
Obama has always pursued two strategies WRT Iran; one was to get them give up the bomb peacefully, the other was to build a regional alliance to contain Iran once they went nuclear. Now, <a href="http://fearandloathingintheblogosphere.blogspot.com/2009/09/putin-will-get-everything-he-wants-or.html">given that Iran lives in a really bad neighborhood</a>, <a href="http://fearandloathingintheblogosphere.blogspot.com/2010/07/eventual-inevitable-security-alliance.html">with nasty neighbors who harbor terrorists</a> - including Bin Laden and Mullah Omar - it's logical for Iran to want either an actual warhead or at least break out capacity.<br />
<br />
<a href="http://fearandloathingintheblogosphere.blogspot.com/2009/06/obamas-middle-east-endgame-part-i.html">So that leaves containment</a>.<br />
<br />
But getting containment right involves building a security alliance for the Middle East ala NATO in Europe (just imagine the day those Gerrys and Frogs work together! Madness I say, Madness!). And getting that security alliance involves getting the Arabs and Israelis to clear the deck -so-to-speak- when it comes to the two generations of animosity they share (it's a bullshit argument that there has "always been war in the Middle East, the regions has enjoyed long stretches of peace punctuated by periods of violence following imperial decline and everything we've seen since WWII is fallout from the British, French and German empires running out steam).<br />
<br />
So, for the time being at least, Israel appears to be ready to gamble on with Obama towards some better greater Middle Eastern end-state.<br />
<br />
<b>Clearing the Deck</b><br />
<br />
In this context, clearing the deck means putting the Palestinian issue to rest, thus providing top cover for the Saudis to finally recognize Israel's right to exist. To that end <a href="http://www.jpost.com/Israel/Article.aspx?id=185736">the talks</a> that Obama announced late last week couldn't be more important to the future of the region. <b> </b> Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7252656799605026066.post-38088372889541775632010-08-04T01:39:00.000-04:002010-08-04T01:39:26.101-04:00Make the Switch: A 2011 Meme in the Making<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.thewe.cc/thewei/&_/__/bar/obama_hillary.jpe" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="211" src="http://www.thewe.cc/thewei/&_/__/bar/obama_hillary.jpe" width="320" /></a></div><br />
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Biden out, Hillary in as V.P.?<br />
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But this, this is madness!<br />
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Madness? This. Is. <a href="http://fearandloathingintheblogosphere.blogspot.com/2010/07/at-what-point-does-joe-biden-become.html">Old news! </a><br />
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<blockquote>But there's a flip side to the good news. Once his midterm penance is finished Obama will have to return to the job of governing, and he'll have to do it with a vice president who is pretty clearly out of step with one of the key tenants of his foreign policy. From Biden's perspective, he'll know just what his boss actually thinks of him and everyone in town will know nothing Biden says carries any weight what-so-ever.<br />
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It seems that the best solution would be, after the mid terms, Biden and Obama should both to begin quietly hinting that the V.P. may be considering retirement in December of 2012. From there either elevate Hillary or go outside the box and appoint Petraeus.</blockquote><br />
That was me, back on July 15th. Now <a href="http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0810/40523.html">Douglas Wilder has taken up the meme:</a><br />
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<blockquote> During Biden’s June trip to Florida, for example, the presumptive Democratic gubernatorial nominee Alex Sink, was so upset that she told POLITICO the whole trip was a “screw-up” and she was “embarrassed” by his speech. The Democratic Party is trying to elect this woman governor of a swing state — one Obama will need in 2012 — during the middle of the oil spill crisis in the Gulf. No vice president should leave such ignominy in his wake. <br />
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</blockquote><blockquote>A few weeks later, Biden comes south and says at a fundraiser, “[T]he heavy lifting is over,” and now the campaigning can begin. <br />
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</blockquote><blockquote>Really? Has the crude oil off the Gulf Coast disappeared? Is the unemployment rate back to its mid-1990s lows? Is the deficit magically under control? Are the president’s approval ratings in the mid-60s? Do large majorities of Americans believe we are on the right track? <br />
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</blockquote><blockquote>I don’t think so. But none of that seems to matter to Biden. People around this country are hurting, and Biden has told them Democrats in Congress and the White House have done all they can or will for them. <br />
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</blockquote><blockquote>As BP chief executive, Tony Hayward said he wanted his life back, then went off on his yacht. The BP board wisely replaced him. What’s so different about Biden saying, in the middle of several crises, that he wants to get back to politics when the people are craving leadership? <br />
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</blockquote><blockquote>Has Biden ended these 18 months with the stature of a man ready and able to be president should the moment call for it? The answer, sadly, is “no.” <br />
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</blockquote><blockquote>I say none of this to detract from Biden’s service to the people of Delaware through his many years in the Senate. But these times demand our country’s best. If Democrats and the president don’t see this, the people will look elsewhere. <br />
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</blockquote><blockquote>Can all the president’s political ills be laid at Biden’s feet? No. But Obama must look through his administration and make a wholesale change. The vice president should not be immune. <br />
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</blockquote><blockquote>Clinton is better suited as the political and government partner that Obama needs. <br />
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I suggest this as one who vigorously supported Obama over Clinton in 2008. In fact, I campaigned across the country and engaged in spirited debates with former colleagues. I don’t regret any of that. Yet, now I think Clinton brings bounty to the political table that few can match. <br />
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</blockquote><blockquote>If both John McCain and Obama were given a sip of truth serum, both would admit they made serious mistakes in choosing running mates in 2008. <br />
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</blockquote><blockquote>McCain can’t do anything about his blunder. Obama can and should<br />
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Read more: <a href="http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0810/40523_Page2.html#ixzz0vc2DSGkK" style="color: #003399;">http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0810/40523_Page2.html#ixzz0vc2DSGkK</a></blockquote><br />
My thoughts, almost exactly. I think Wilder downplays the apparent daylight that exists between Biden and Obama when it comes to the war in Afghanistan, but overall I think Wilder is correct that the time has come for Joe Biden to step back and for Hillary Clinton to step up.<br />
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It is highly unlikely that Clinton would want another turn at Foggy Bottom, so that leaves both the SECSTATE and SECDEF jobs will have to be filled during the next Obama administration. It only stands to reason that Biden could take over at either the State Department or the Pentagon and Clinton could easily slip into the V.P. slot. <br />
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<blockquote> </blockquote>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7252656799605026066.post-56825846126668576842010-08-03T07:42:00.001-04:002010-08-03T07:44:12.875-04:00The NYT Rethinks the Strategic Assumptions of the Bush Administration<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://cache.boston.com/universal/site_graphics/blogs/bigpicture/afghan_06_03/afghanistan6.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="251" src="http://cache.boston.com/universal/site_graphics/blogs/bigpicture/afghan_06_03/afghanistan6.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br />
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In June, I had a post I called "<a href="http://fearandloathingintheblogosphere.blogspot.com/2010/06/mission-accomplished-rethinking.html">Rethinking the Strategic Assumptions if the Bush administration</a>", in which I argued that:<br />
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<blockquote>But both things can be true: Bush was a bad president; he was also right about Iraq versus Afghanistan in 2002. He was right that Afghanistan would turn out to be un-winnable.</blockquote><br />
In short, I argued that all the assumptions about Bush's policies towards Afghanistan missing some opportunity in 2002 or 2003 were probably wrong, and that in hindsight taking out Hussein remains a pretty good bet given the alternative of doubling down in the 'Stan.<br />
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Now, the NYT's David Sanger <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2010/08/01/weekinreview/01sanger.html?_r=2&pagewanted=1">seems to be coming around to my point of view:</a><br />
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<blockquote>Removing the Taliban from power in 2001 was deceptively easy, leading Washington to believe that the Afghans could largely take it from there. Fewer than a thousand American troops and <a class="meta-org" href="http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/organizations/c/central_intelligence_agency/index.html?inline=nyt-org" title="More articles about the Central Intelligence Agency.">C.I.A.</a> officers, some on horseback, joined with the indigenous <a class="meta-org" href="http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/organizations/n/northern_alliance/index.html?inline=nyt-org" title="More articles about Northern Alliance">Northern Alliance</a> to chase the Taliban leader Mullah Omar and his forces out of Kabul. That would have been the moment, it is argued, to put 20,000 to 30,000 American troops — and perhaps a similar number of <a class="meta-org" href="http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/organizations/n/north_atlantic_treaty_organization/index.html?inline=nyt-org" title="More articles about the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.">NATO</a> forces — into the country as a stabilization force. </blockquote><blockquote>But Mr. Bush and his defense secretary, <a class="meta-per" href="http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/people/r/donald_h_rumsfeld/index.html?inline=nyt-per" title="More articles about Donald H. Rumsfeld.">Donald Rumsfeld</a>, wouldn’t hear of it. “The consensus was that little could be accomplished in Afghanistan given its history, culture and composition, and there would be little payoff beyond Afghanistan even if things there went better than expected,” Richard Haass, a senior official at the State Department in the Bush administration who advocated the insertion of a far larger force, wrote recently. “They had no appetite for on-the-ground nation building.” </blockquote><br />
Gee, I wonder why?<br />
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Bush and Rumsfeld's first instincts on Afghanistan were correct. Iraq was an easier - and likely more successful - venture in nation building. Also, the doctrinal changes that occurred during the tough slog in Iraq allowed American to build a skill set that can be applied to the Af/Pak theater. <br />
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</blockquote>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7252656799605026066.post-9422991098615870192010-07-26T08:27:00.000-04:002010-07-26T08:27:56.906-04:00The Failed Presidency of Barack Obama, pt 2<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://img.wonkette.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/01/obama-bush-clinton.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"> <img border="0" height="229" src="http://img.wonkette.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/01/obama-bush-clinton.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br />
The breaking wikileaks scandal has the possibility of becoming a true Katrina moment for Barack Obama, depending on how<a href="http://www.wired.com/dangerroom/2010/07/wikileaks-drops-90000-secret-war-docs-fingers-pakistan-as-insurgent-ally/#more-28442"> things shake ou</a>t.<br />
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<blockquote>But as <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2010/07/26/world/asia/26isi.html?hp">the early-viewing </a><em><a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2010/07/26/world/asia/26isi.html?hp">New York Times</a></em> reports, WikiLeaks presents a new depth of detail about how the U.S. military has seen, for six years, the depths of ISI facilitation of the Afghan insurgency. For instance: a three-star Pakistani general active during the 80s-era U.S.-Pakistani-Saudi sponsorship of the anti-Soviet insurgency, Hamid Gul, <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/world/26warlogs.html#report/78523FD0-2219-0B3F-9FF02E00B6A2578A">allegedly met with insurgent leaders in South Waziristan</a> in January 2009 to plot vengeance for the drone-inflicted death of an al-Qaeda operative. (Gul called it “absolute nonsense” to the <em>Times</em> reporters.) <br />
</blockquote><blockquote>Other reports, stretching back to 2004, offer chilling, granular detail about the Taliban’s return to potency after the U.S. and Afghan militias routed the religious-based movement in 2001. Some of them, as the <em>Times</em> notes, cast serious doubt on official U.S. and NATO accounts of how insurgents prosecute the war. Apparently, the insurgents have used “<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2010/07/26/world/asia/26warlogs.html?pagewanted=all">heat-seeking missiles against allied aircraft</a>,” eerily reminiscent of the famous Stinger missiles that the U.S., Saudi Arabia and Pakistan provided to the <em>mujahideen</em> to down Soviet helicopters. One such missile downed a Chinook over Helmand in May 2007.<br />
<span id="more-28442"></span><br />
Typically, NATO accounts of copter downings are vague — and I’ve never seen one that cited the Taliban’s use of a guided missile. This clearly isn’t just <a href="http://www.amazon.com/Koran-Kalashnikov-Laptop-Neo-Taliban-Afghanistan/dp/0231700091">Koran, Kalashnikov and laptop</a> anymore. And someone is selling the insurgents these missiles, after all. That someone just might be slated to <a href="http://www.wired.com/dangerroom/2009/10/pakistans-top-generals-no-strings-attached-to-aid-please/">receive $7.5 billion of U.S. aid over the next five years</a>.<br />
<div style="background-color: transparent; border: medium none; color: black; overflow: hidden; text-align: left; text-decoration: none;"><br />
Read More <a href="http://www.wired.com/dangerroom/2010/07/wikileaks-drops-90000-secret-war-docs-fingers-pakistan-as-insurgent-ally/#more-28442#ixzz0un4c3UlL" style="color: #003399;">http://www.wired.com/dangerroom/2010/07/wikileaks-drops-90000-secret-war-docs-fingers-pakistan-as-insurgent-ally/#more-28442#ixzz0un4c3UlL</a></div></blockquote><br />
If it comes out that the Obama administration has been a.) actively covering up Pakistani involvement or, b.) So incompetent as to have overlooked obvious Pakistani involvement, then these documents could have a real impact on the already weakened Obama administration.<br />
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Obama's post presidency is fast approaching, and the most important thing for him to do with that time is to plan to fail in Afghanistan. <br />
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<blockquote> </blockquote>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7252656799605026066.post-15342000521125906222010-07-26T00:10:00.000-04:002010-07-26T00:10:09.052-04:00Planning to Fail in Afghanistan, pt 11: The "Fail" meme goes viral<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://diplomacyandpower.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2009/12/031408_afghanistan_8001.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="254" src="http://diplomacyandpower.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2009/12/031408_afghanistan_8001.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br />
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Glad to see the NYT is now accurately reporting about our real enemy in Afghanistan - Pakistan:<br />
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<blockquote>Americans fighting the war in Afghanistan have long harbored strong suspicions that Pakistan’s military spy service has guided the Afghan insurgency with a hidden hand, even as Pakistan receives more than $1 billion a year from Washington for its help combating the militants, according to a trove of secret military field reports to be made public Sunday. </blockquote><blockquote>The documents, to be made available by an organization called WikiLeaks, suggest that Pakistan, an ostensible ally of the United States, allows representatives of its spy service to meet directly with the <a class="meta-org" href="http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/organizations/t/taliban/index.html?inline=nyt-org" title="More articles about the Taliban.">Taliban</a> in secret strategy sessions to organize networks of militant groups that fight against American soldiers in Afghanistan, and even hatch plots to assassinate Afghan leaders. </blockquote><blockquote>Taken together, the reports indicate that American soldiers on the ground are inundated with accounts of a network of Pakistani assets and collaborators that runs from the Pakistani tribal belt along the Afghan border, through southern Afghanistan, and all the way to the capital, Kabul. </blockquote><blockquote>Much of the information — raw intelligence and threat assessments gathered from the field in Afghanistan— cannot be verified and likely comes from sources aligned with Afghan intelligence, which considers Pakistan an enemy, and paid informants. Some describe plots for attacks that do not appear to have taken place. </blockquote><blockquote>But many of the reports rely on sources that the military rated as reliable. </blockquote><blockquote>While current and former American officials interviewed could not corroborate individual reports, they said that the portrait of the spy agency’s collaboration with the Afghan insurgency was broadly consistent with other classified intelligence. </blockquote><blockquote>Some of the reports describe Pakistani intelligence working alongside <a class="meta-org" href="http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/organizations/a/al_qaeda/index.html?inline=nyt-org" title="More articles about Al Qaeda.">Al Qaeda</a> to plan attacks. Experts cautioned that although Pakistan’s militant groups and Al Qaeda work together, directly linking the Pakistani spy agency, the Directorate for <a class="meta-org" href="http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/organizations/i/interservices_intelligence/index.html?inline=nyt-org" title="More articles about Inter-Services Intelligence.">Inter-Services Intelligence</a>, or ISI, with Al Qaeda is difficult. </blockquote><blockquote>The records also contain firsthand accounts of American anger at Pakistan’s unwillingness to confront insurgents who launched attacks near Pakistani border posts, moved openly by the truckload across the frontier, and retreated to Pakistani territory for safety. </blockquote><blockquote>The behind-the-scenes frustrations of soldiers on the ground and glimpses of what appear to be Pakistani skullduggery contrast sharply with the frequently rosy public pronouncements of Pakistan as an ally by American officials, looking to sustain a drone campaign over parts of Pakistani territory to strike at Qaeda havens. Administration officials also want to keep nuclear-armed Pakistan on their side to safeguard <a class="meta-org" href="http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/organizations/n/north_atlantic_treaty_organization/index.html?inline=nyt-org" title="More articles about the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.">NATO</a> supplies flowing on routes that cross Pakistan to Afghanistan. </blockquote><a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2010/07/26/world/asia/26isi.html">Read the whole thing.</a> <br />
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<a href="http://fearandloathingintheblogosphere.blogspot.com/2010/06/war-after-next.html">Pakistan is not our frien</a>d. Pakistan is a rouge nation - the enemy of the both the United States and of <a href="http://fearandloathingintheblogosphere.blogspot.com/2010/07/eventual-inevitable-security-alliance.html">Globalization's Rising Core- </a> and they will have to be dealt with, sooner or later. When something goes thump in the night - see the recent almost attack in Time Square - we will have to face the fact that Pakistan is not merely home to a loose nit collection of non-state actors but is actually actively supporting terrorists that kill American troops and undermine our foreign policy goals in South Asia and around the world.<br />
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The U.S. has not dealt with a situation like Pakistan since the end of the Cold War. Because not since the Soviet Union collapsed have we been forced to deal with a nuclear armed, heavily militarized nation that was actively supporting notoriously anti-America elements around the world. Since 1989 the U.S. has faced small powers - Iraq, Panama, Serbia - who did not posses nuclear arms. Meanwhile, we dreamed of hypothetical wars with potential super powers, China, Japan, a resurgent Russia, while we engaged a series of non-state actors during peace building and counter insurgency operations. But Pakistan is a different story. Handling Pakistan might wind up looking a lot like handling the Soviet Union - we'll have to go back to containment (not of "Islamism", etc, but of Pakistan) by building a security alliance with like minded - or at least like interested - nations such as India and Iran. Over time, we'll have to hope that Pakistan's internal contradictions will rip it apart without allowing their nukes to fall into the wrong hands.<br />
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The good news is that Pakistan is a poor nation with little industry. Unlike the Soviet Union, Pakistan is not capable of global or even regional "Pakistani block" nor are they capable of building up a military with global reach. What they are capable of is ruining our plans for Afghanistan and triggering a regional war with India. And that is why we must plan to fail in Afghanistan while building a strong strategic relationship with India.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7252656799605026066.post-15885737261959439472010-07-20T00:00:00.000-04:002010-08-09T11:36:50.373-04:005GW: What Kind of Day Has It Been?<iframe frameborder="0" marginheight="0" marginwidth="0" scrolling="no" src="http://rcm.amazon.com/e/cm?t=fearandloa-20&o=1&p=8&l=as1&asins=B003VPX206&fc1=000000&IS2=1&lt1=_blank&m=amazon&lc1=0000FF&bc1=000000&bg1=FFFFFF&f=ifr" style="height: 240px; width: 120px;"></iframe><br/><br/>Note: I've set this post to update automatically at ~ 8:00 am EST on July 20th, 2010, but I'm writing it over the weekend. Because I'll be traveling on business on the 20th, I won't know what other bloggers - my coauthors - are posting about the Handbook of 5GW, but I will say that the following blogs are certain to have some interesting posts at some point on July 20th about our book:<br/><br/><a href="http://www.tdaxp.com/">TDAXP</a><br/><br/><a href="http://zenpundit.com/">Zenpundit </a><br/><br/><a href="http://purpleslog.wordpress.com/">Purpleslog </a><br/><br/><a href="http://cominganarchy.com/">Coming Anarchy</a><br/><br/><b><br/></b><br/><b>Introduction</b><br/><br/>Aaron Sorkin - easily one of the top two or three living screenwriters and a writer that has had a huge impact on my life - ended the first season of each of his three series; Sports Night, the West Wing and Studio 60 on the Sunset Strip, with an episode entitled "What Kind of Day Has It Been?" In each case the season finale tied up a number of story arcs and set up new story arcs for the next season.<br/><br/>And so today we face a similar event in the blogosphere with the release of the Handbook of 5GW, from <a href="http://www.nimblebooks.com/">Nimble Books</a>, edited by Dan Abbott. The Handbook of 5GW is supposed to be, in my opinion, the 'end of the beginning' of the debate about 5GW, the same why the season finale of the first season of a T.V. series is the end of one story arc and beginning of another. Having watched this project evolve - thanks in no small part to the editorial work of Dr. Abbott - I really think that we have the beginning of a good conversation about less kinetic and more dispersed warfare.<br/><br/><b>Some Thoughts on My Chapter, 1 Year Later </b> <br/><br/>My contribution to the Handbook of 5GW was a chapter entitled <a href="http://draft.blogger.com/goog_1947110691">The War for Robert Taylor </a>is about a 5GW counter insurgency operation that was conducted by the city of Chicago against the Black Kings in a public housing project in Chicago. The COIN operation I describe destroyed the insurgency by radically altering the human terrain of the area. This approach to COIN differs from 4GW ideas about COIN, such as David Killcullen's concept of the <a href="http://www.amazon.com/Accidental-Guerrilla-Fighting-Small-Midst/dp/0195368347">Accidental Guerrilla </a>because, rather than trying to understand and leverage the primary loyalties of the population - which is what both the Anbar Awakening and the current tribal engagement strategies in Afghanistan do - Chicago's COIN operation set out to destroy and reorient the population's primary loyalties, away from the close to home "tight network" family-community (hood) dynamic to a "loose network" individual-state dynamic. Perhaps counter-intuitively in our anti-government, pro-entrepreneurial society, the government's COIN operation in Chicago was specially designed to destroy private sector relationships (although black market) and replace them with a dependency upon the state. This was done because state dependency was considered the lesser evil when considered against its black market alternative.<br/><br/>When considering my contribution to the 5GW discussion, we should consider the ratio of horizontal to vertical relationships in a human terrain area (be it a nation-state, sub culture, community, etc). In this context horizontal relationships describe "organic" human-to-human relations. This means blood relatives, spouses, extended family, friends, coworkers, community, etc. On the other hand, vertical relationships describe a relationship between the individual and the Leviathan - the state in most cases. In the case of Chicago the horizontal relationships had grown too strong - creating a classic insurgency controlled temporary autonomous zone within the inner city - and needed to be broken by a reassertion of the authority of the Leviathan. So what the city figured out was how to use a 5GW to break horizontal relationships and force individuals to turn to the vertical relationship offered by the state. This type of warfare may have wide ranging implication, from destroying narco-terrorists like the Black Kings to engaging in various social engineering projects. Indeed, the bulk of Lydon Johnson Great Society may have been 5GW operations that tried to destroy more informal, horizontal networks that were designed to help the poor and replace them with a vertical relationship with the state.<br/><br/><b>Conclusion </b><br/><br/>Read the book.<div class="iblogger-footer"><br clear="all"/><p style="text-align:right;font-size:10px;">[Posted with <a href="http://illuminex.com/iBlogger/index.html">iBlogger</a> from my iPhone]</p><br/></div><br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7252656799605026066.post-66743547231478052582010-07-18T23:25:00.000-04:002010-07-18T23:25:06.515-04:00The Eventual, Inevitable, Security Alliance in South/Central Asia and the M.E.<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://www-cira.tees.ac.uk/scouts/nton/barnes/reports/bets/Indian.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="133" src="http://www-cira.tees.ac.uk/scouts/nton/barnes/reports/bets/Indian.jpg" width="200" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://people.eku.edu/pedersonn/mongoliaFire/american-flag.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="140" src="http://people.eku.edu/pedersonn/mongoliaFire/american-flag.gif" width="200" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.appliedlanguage.com/flags_of_the_world/large_flag_of_iran.gif" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" height="110" src="http://www.appliedlanguage.com/flags_of_the_world/large_flag_of_iran.gif" width="200" /></a></div><br />
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The Iranian-Indian-American Security alliance will someday be the most important in central Asia and the Middle East. The only question is whether it come about in the near future, or after a disastrous Israeli-Iranian war followed by a Pakistani attack on Iran, India and the U.S. Don't believe me? <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2010/07/18/world/middleeast/18mosque.html">Read the news:</a><br />
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<blockquote> <a class="meta-loc" href="http://topics.nytimes.com/top/news/international/countriesandterritories/iran/index.html?inline=nyt-geo" title="More news and information about Iran.">Iran</a>’s deputy police chief accused <a class="meta-loc" href="http://topics.nytimes.com/top/news/international/countriesandterritories/pakistan/index.html?inline=nyt-geo" title="More news and information about Pakistan.">Pakistan</a> on Saturday of providing a haven for members of an armed rebel group that has claimed responsibility for the deadly twin suicide bombings last week in front of a mosque in the southeastern city of Zahedan. <br />
</blockquote><blockquote>Chief Ahmadreza Radan also said the authorities had detained 40 people who were seeking to create a disturbance in the city after the bombings, the semiofficial ILNA news agency reported. <br />
</blockquote><blockquote>The arrests appeared to be part of a crackdown in the Sunni-dominated province of Sistan-Baluchistan, where the rebel group, Jundollah, has been operating. <br />
Without naming Pakistan specifically, he issued a tough warning to “neighbors on the eastern borders” of Iran. </blockquote><br />
So Iran is being attack by insurgents based in Pakistan? Hmmm. I wonder if any other countries have <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-south-asia-10679383">that problem? </a><br />
<br />
<blockquote>US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton worries all the time about the possibility that an attack against the US could emanate from Pakistan and has called on Islamabad to take further, specific actions against militant networks. <br />
</blockquote><blockquote>Without entering into the details, she seemed to indicate in a BBC interview that the US wanted Pakistan to do more to tackle the Haqqani network, a branch of the Afghan </blockquote><blockquote>Taliban which operates in Pakistan and is widely suspected of having close ties to Pakistan's intelligence agency, the ISI. <br />
</blockquote><blockquote>During the interview at the US embassy compound in Islamabad, Mrs Clinton also said the state department was looking into the possibility of listing the Haqqani network as a terrorist organisation. <br />
</blockquote><blockquote>The violent and feared network operates along the border of Pakistan and Afghanistan and is seen as the main threat to US and Nato troops in Afghanistan. <br />
</blockquote><blockquote>"We have designated a number of their leaders over the years as terrorists, and we're now looking at whether and how to describe the group and if it meets the legal criteria for naming it," she said. <br />
<span class="cross-head"></span> </blockquote>Ok, let me get this straight; Iran is under attack, American troops are under attack in Afghanistan, the SECSTATE is worried that <strike>Pakistani based insurgents</strike> the ISI will attack America and yet....? We ramp up tensions with Iran? And this makes sense to people?<br />
<br />
Lest we forget, India has also been attack by the <a href="http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20100714/wl_sthasia_afp/indiapakistanattacksdiplomacy_20100714073327">world's second most dangerous rouge state</a> (after the KFR):<br />
<br />
<blockquote>NEW DELHI (AFP) – India has accused Pakistani <a class="kLink" href="http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20100714/wl_sthasia_afp/indiapakistanattacksdiplomacy_20100714073327#" id="KonaLink0" target="undefined"><span style="color: rgb(54, 99, 136) ! important; font-family: arial,helvetica,clean,sans-serif; font-size: 13px; font-weight: 400; position: static;"><span class="kLink" style="color: rgb(54, 99, 136) ! important; font-family: arial,helvetica,clean,sans-serif; font-size: 13px; font-weight: 400; position: static;">intelligence </span><span class="kLink" style="color: rgb(54, 99, 136) ! important; font-family: arial,helvetica,clean,sans-serif; font-size: 13px; font-weight: 400; position: static;">services</span></span></a> of overseeing the 2008 militant attacks on Mumbai, a report said Wednesday ahead of a major meeting between the rival nations. <br />
</blockquote><blockquote>Home Secretary G. K. Pillai told the Indian Express newspaper that the level of involvement of Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) had become clear through recent questioning of <a class="kLink" href="http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20100714/wl_sthasia_afp/indiapakistanattacksdiplomacy_20100714073327#" id="KonaLink1" target="undefined"><span style="color: rgb(54, 99, 136) ! important; font-family: arial,helvetica,clean,sans-serif; font-size: 13px; font-weight: 400; position: static;"><span class="kLink" style="color: rgb(54, 99, 136) ! important; font-family: arial,helvetica,clean,sans-serif; font-size: 13px; font-weight: 400; position: static;">David </span><span class="kLink" style="color: rgb(54, 99, 136) ! important; font-family: arial,helvetica,clean,sans-serif; font-size: 13px; font-weight: 400; position: static;">Headley</span></span></a>, a suspect under arrest in the United States.</blockquote><br />
If a political scientist from Mars landed in South Asia and tried to study the situation he or she could be forgiven for quickly concluding that Pakistan was clearly a pariah state and that Iran, India and America must have an alliance to try to contain Pakistan. Of course he would be wrong, but he would not be illogical. <br />
<blockquote></blockquote><br />
<br />
<blockquote></blockquote>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7252656799605026066.post-60871005217095194052010-07-15T00:23:00.001-04:002010-07-15T18:07:19.993-04:00At What Point Does Joe Biden Become a Liability?<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.thebrutaltimes.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/08/obama-biden1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="266" src="http://www.thebrutaltimes.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/08/obama-biden1.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br />
<br />
<br />
There appears to be a bit of daylight emerging between the Joe Biden-Nancy Pelosi wing of the Democratic Party and Barack Obama. <br />
<br />
First, consider Michael Gerson's column from this morning's <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/07/13/AR2010071305080.html">Washington Post:</a><br />
<br />
<blockquote>But last week, Vice President Biden appeared at a fundraiser for one of the least responsible critics of the Afghanistan war, Rep. Kurt Schrader (D-Ore.) -- among a handful of House members who voted to defund the war entirely. "<a href="http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/house-races/107871-biden-praises-afghan-war-critic-for-speaking-out" target="">I encourage you, old buddy, to speak out," said Biden.</a> "You're independent. Don't let anybody take that out of you." Is it possible to imagine Biden saying the same thing of a Democrat who is a leading climate-science skeptic? Or a Democrat who dismisses Obama's health reform as socialism? </blockquote><br />
And this isn't the first example of dissonance between Biden and the president when it comes to Afghanistan. Consider Biden's quote from The Promise:<br />
<br />
<blockquote>At the conclusion of an interview in his West Wing office, Biden was adamant. "In July of 2011 you're going to see a whole lot of people moving out. Bet on it," Biden said as he wheeled to leave the room, late for lunch with the president. He turned at the door and said once more, "Bet. On. It."</blockquote><br />
<a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/robert-naiman/speaker-pelosi-put-afghan_b_630971.html">Read Robert Naiman's piece.</a> There is a clear division emerging within the democratic party. Consider a much more serious <a href="http://draft.blogger.com/goog_241810144">senior democratic senator:</a><br />
<br />
<blockquote>Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-Cali.), whose hawkish grounding has angered progressive in the past, likely facilitated that anger again, when she told "Fox News Sunday" that if General David Petraeus asked for more troops next summer, he should be granted them. </blockquote><blockquote>"I would say give it to him, absolutely," said the California Democrat. "Now, let's talk about the deadline. This is a transition point toward the beginning of a withdrawal or a drawdown as Petraeus said in his transcript before the Armed Services [Committee]. And I think he has flexibility realistically. Ten years is a long time to fight a war, particularly with what happened before the 10 years. And so we need to understand that [we have] to get the military trained, get the government online, secure and stabilize, and I think do away with the drugs to a great extent, because the drugs are now fueling the Taliban."</blockquote><br />
Between Feinstein's comments, Republican backing for continuing the war, Obama's appointment of General Petraeus, I'd say it's a good bet that the president is starting to rethink his "July 2011" draw down.<br />
<br />
The good news for Barack Obama is that the "progressive" caucus in the House will only exist for a few more months, because after this November I expect we'll see Nancy Pelosi - fresh off an electoral trouncing - crawl back under the rock from whence she came. Once the democrats lose the House, the heat is off and Obama will be free to command the war as Petraeus sees fit. <br />
<br />
But there's a flip side to the good news. Once his midterm penance is finished Obama will have to return to the job of governing, and he'll have to do it with a vice president who is pretty clearly out of step with one of the key tenants of his foreign policy. From Biden's perspective, he'll know just what his boss actually thinks of him and everyone in town will know nothing Biden says carries any weight what-so-ever.<br />
<br />
It seems that the best solution would be, after the mid terms, Biden and Obama should both to begin quietly hinting that the V.P. may be considering retirement in December of 2012. From there either elevate Hillary or go outside the box and appoint Petraeus.<br />
<br />
<b>*Update*</b> <br />
<br />
And this afternoon I see an <a href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704518904575365482705270718.html?mod=googlenews_wsj">op ed </a>in the WSJ that supports my "dump Biden" meme. <br />
<blockquote></blockquote>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7252656799605026066.post-28849398984375285322010-07-14T23:19:00.001-04:002010-07-14T23:21:14.778-04:00Planning to Fail Win in Afghanistan, pt 10: 10 Days in, 10 Years Late<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.worldpress.org/images/20060418-india-pakistan-border.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="288" src="http://www.worldpress.org/images/20060418-india-pakistan-border.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<b>Introduction</b> <br />
<br />
When I heard about the changing of the guard in Afghanistan, I wrote that one metric that would be important in determining whether or not the situation could be turned around would be how General Petraeus handled <a href="http://fearandloathingintheblogosphere.blogspot.com/2010/06/planning-to-fail-win-in-afghanistan-pt.html">Pakistani meddling in Afghan affairs</a>: <br />
<br />
<blockquote>Let's see, however, how Petraeus deals with Pakistan. The good general has a reputation of being a amiable guy and with a great sense for PR - I found him to be both a great public speaker and legitimately funny guy when I saw him speak last year - but he's also a stone cold soldier, and his surge in Iraq included both "soft" elements of population security and hard core kinetics, like tracking down and killing AQI and Iranian special groups operating inside Iraq. So it'll be interesting to see how Petraeus might handle Pakistani or Iranian assets he catches in country - I'd not want to cross the border if I were a soldier in either of those countries armies right now, BTW.</blockquote><br />
Now, about 10 days after taking command, a picture seems to be emerging. <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2010/07/14/world/asia/14diplo.html?_r=1&ref=asia">Petraeus is mad as hell and he's not going to take it anymore:</a><br />
<br />
<blockquote>General Petraeus introduced the idea of blacklisting the group, known as the Haqqani network, late last week in discussions with <a class="meta-per" href="http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/people/o/barack_obama/index.html?inline=nyt-per" title="More articles about Barack Obama.">President Obama</a>’s senior advisers on <a class="meta-loc" href="http://topics.nytimes.com/top/news/international/countriesandterritories/pakistan/index.html?inline=nyt-geo" title="More news and information about Pakistan.">Pakistan</a> and Afghanistan, according to several administration officials, who said it was being seriously considered. </blockquote><blockquote>Such a move could risk antagonizing Pakistan, a critical partner in the war effort, but one that is closely tied to the Haqqani network. It could also frustrate the Afghan president, <a class="meta-per" href="http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/people/k/hamid_karzai/index.html?inline=nyt-per" title="More articles about Hamid Karzai.">Hamid Karzai</a>, who is <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2010/07/02/world/asia/02afghan.html" title="Times article">pressing to reconcile with all the insurgent groups</a> as a way to end the nine-year-old war and consolidate his own grip on power. </blockquote><br />
<b>A Strategic Asset No More </b> <br />
<br />
General Kayani apparently once referred to the Haqqani network as a "<a href="http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/asia/article5747696.ece">strategic asset</a>" and there is every indication that the ISI has an all-too-close relationship with <a href="http://www.understandingwar.org/themenode/haqqani-network">Haqqani</a>, so listing them as a terrorist organization, while somewhat symbolic, is still important when, in the years to come, we decide to start considering Pakistan a state-sponsor of terrorism - which they are.<br />
<br />
Meanwhile, on the other side of that hundred miles of rocks and dirt that has been responsible for most of our problems for the last ten years, my nominee for the next permanent member of the U.N. security council is making some pretty serious <a href="http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20100714/wl_sthasia_afp/indiapakistanattacksdiplomacy_20100714073327">allegations about the ISI:</a><br />
<br />
<blockquote>India has accused Pakistani intelligence services of overseeing the 2008 militant attacks on Mumbai, a report said Wednesday ahead of a major meeting between the rival nations. <br />
Home Secretary G. K. Pillai told the Indian Express newspaper that the level of involvement of Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) had become clear through recent questioning of <a class="kLink" href="http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20100714/wl_sthasia_afp/indiapakistanattacksdiplomacy_20100714073327#" id="KonaLink1" style="border-bottom-color: rgb(54, 99, 136); border-bottom-style: dotted;" target="undefined"><span style="color: #366388; font-family: arial,helvetica,clean,sans-serif; font-size: 13px; font-weight: 400; position: static;"><span class="kLink" style="color: #366388; font-family: arial,helvetica,clean,sans-serif; font-size: 13px; font-weight: 400; position: static;">David </span><span class="kLink" style="color: #366388; font-family: arial,helvetica,clean,sans-serif; font-size: 13px; font-weight: 400; position: static;">Headley</span></span></a>, a suspect under arrest in the United States. </blockquote><blockquote>"The real sense that has come out from Headley?s interrogation is that the ISI has had a much more significant role to play (than was earlier thought)," Pillai said.</blockquote><br />
Uh-Oh. Yeah, that whole Mumbai thing was sort, kind of an act of war, and I'm sure the U.S. has been trying to hold India back. Maybe no more. Hopefully this is all part of a broader strategy, with Petraeus traveling to Islamabad and playing good cop to India's bad cop and telling the Pakistanis that there is only so much America can do to hold the Indians back, so they better start dissolving their relationships with terrorists organizations, like the ISI.<br />
<br />
On the ground in Afghanistan, Petraeus appears to be taking the advice offered in by numerous sources last year and standing up local <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2010/07/15/world/asia/15afghan.html">security militias</a> to augment the police and military:<br />
<br />
<blockquote>KABUL, Afghanistan — After intensive discussions with <a class="meta-org" href="http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/organizations/n/north_atlantic_treaty_organization/index.html?inline=nyt-org" title="More articles about the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.">NATO</a> military commanders, the Afghan government on Wednesday approved a program to establish local defense forces around the country, with the potential to help remote areas thwart attacks by <a class="meta-org" href="http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/organizations/t/taliban/index.html?inline=nyt-org" title="More articles about the Taliban.">Taliban</a> insurgents. </blockquote><blockquote>The NATO-backed program, which will be supervised by the Interior Ministry, will pay salaries to the members of these new forces, an inducement that could generate widespread recruitment, although Afghan aides have said they prefer to keep the program small. <br />
</blockquote><b>A Fine Line Between Militias and Warlords</b> <br />
<br />
Johnson and Mason (2009) writing in military review last year were skeptical of the tribal militia idea (I referenced their work in <a href="http://fearandloathingintheblogosphere.blogspot.com/search/label/Moral%20Warfare%20in%20Southwest%20Asia">Moral Warfare in Southwest Asia</a>) and Malkasian and Meyerle (2009) point out that Afghanistan has a long history of warlordism whereas Iraq had almost no history of militias and warlords run a muck. It's worth considering that one of the QST's primary arguments when they were sweeping the country from 1994-96 was that the warlords and local militias (almost all old Mujihadeen commanders) were too corrupt and did not protect the people. Would these new militias be different? Will they be loyal to Kabul? Will they self finance with graft and drug dealing? Do we want them to be loyal to Kabul - given the corruption of Karzai and his band of merry men? Is this part of <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2010/04/07/opinion/07west.html">Bing West's</a> "mushroom" (keep them in the dark and feed them shit) strategy WRT to Kabul?<br />
<br />
I think all of these questions need to be answered if the ISAF is going to get in the business of supporting local militias. Ironically, critic of president Bush's Afghan policy, such as Ahmed Rashid, often suggest that is was the reliance on former Northern Alliance commanders - acting as warlords - that helped fuel the rise of the neo-Taliban throughout 2002-06.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7252656799605026066.post-72484873025241365512010-07-14T20:06:00.002-04:002010-07-17T12:44:07.280-04:00I Am a Published Author!<iframe frameborder="0" marginheight="0" marginwidth="0" scrolling="no" src="http://rcm.amazon.com/e/cm?t=fearandloa-20&o=1&p=8&l=as1&asins=B003VPX206&fc1=000000&IS2=1&lt1=_blank&m=amazon&lc1=0000FF&bc1=000000&bg1=FFFFFF&f=ifr" style="height: 240px; width: 120px;"></iframe><br />
<br />
The Handbook of 5GW has arrived! Read a preview of my chapter The War for Robert Taylor, <a href="http://fearandloathingintheblogosphere.blogspot.com/2009/10/5gw-handbook-is-fast-approaching.html">here. </a>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7252656799605026066.post-35301114500270450492010-07-14T01:33:00.001-04:002010-07-14T23:27:01.772-04:00The Coming Divsion of Labor: Israeli Levithan/Russian Sys Admin<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.richard-seaman.com/Travel/Russia/Moscow/Highlights/StBasilsWithStatue.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="320" src="http://www.richard-seaman.com/Travel/Russia/Moscow/Highlights/StBasilsWithStatue.jpg" width="300" /></a></div><br />
<b><br />
</b><br />
<b>Introduction</b><br />
<br />
Russia appears to be tilting towards an "all clear" <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE66B26920100712">on the coming Israel-Arab strike on Iran</a>:<br />
<br />
<blockquote><span id="articleText"><span class="focusParagraph">Russian President Dmitry Medvedev said Monday <a href="http://www.reuters.com/places/iran" onclick="Reuters.article.trackInlineLink(4)" title="Full coverage of Iran">Iran</a> was gaining the ability to build a nuclear bomb, remarks welcomed in Washington as a sign of growing international unity behind a tough line toward Tehran.<br />
</span></span> </blockquote><blockquote><span id="articleText">Medvedev's comments were the strongest criticism of <a href="http://www.reuters.com/places/iran" onclick="Reuters.article.trackInlineLink(4)" title="Full coverage of Iran">Iran</a>'s nuclear program to emerge from the Kremlin under either Medvedev or his predecessor, Prime Minister Vladimir Putin.<br />
</span></blockquote><blockquote><span id="articleText">A major goal of U.S. President Barack Obama's "reset" of relations with Moscow has been winning Russian backing for a tougher international line toward <a href="http://www.reuters.com/places/iran" onclick="Reuters.article.trackInlineLink(4)" title="Full
coverage of Iran">Iran</a>.<br />
</span> </blockquote><blockquote><span id="articleText">"It is obvious that <a href="http://www.reuters.com/places/iran" onclick="Reuters.article.trackInlineLink(4)" title="Full coverage of Iran">Iran</a> is moving closer to possessing the potential which in principle could be used for the creation of nuclear weapons," Medvedev told a meeting of Russia's ambassadors in Moscow.</span></blockquote><b>Russia's Strategic Interests</b><br />
<br />
Interesting. If Medvedev asked me, not only should Russia (from their perspective - not an American perspective) support an Israeli strike, they should also adopt a policy of intelligence sharing with Israel (WRT Iran's nukes and air defenses) and even offer to use Russian intelligence assets or special forces as needed to assist Israel. This is because a nuclear Iran is a bigger threat to <a href="http://fearandloathingintheblogosphere.blogspot.com/2009/09/putin-will-get-everything-he-wants-or.html">Russia than to anyone else:</a><br />
<br />
<blockquote>To top it all off, Iran, which already posses a missile that can hit Russia, had crowds in the street today shouting <a href="http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/the_daily_dish/2009/09/the-revolution-lives.html">"Down with Russia!"</a><br />
<br />
The day will come in the not-too-distant future, when Russia wants to throw its weight around in the Caucuses or central Asia and all of these answered prayers are going to haunt them. Until then, I hope the Poles and Czechs do their part to reduce global warming, I hope the protesters keep going until A-Jad either steps down or "gets Ceascued" and I hope Putin keeps getting everything he wants. </blockquote><br />
Besides the obvious benefits of setting the Iranian program back a few years, I continue to suspect that Russian companies will be in a the cat-bird-seat, so-to-speak, when it comes to rebuilding the <a href="http://fearandloathingintheblogosphere.blogspot.com/2010/06/failed-presidency-of-barack-obama.html">destroyed infrastructure in Iran</a>:<br />
<br />
<blockquote>Russia, Turkey and Pakistan want nothing more than an Iranian client state, stripped of all international connectivity and forced to conduct business through Russian/Turkish and Pakistani smugglers. These guys will be popping popcorn and laughing with glee as Israel destroys Iran's nuclear capacity - I'd not rule out Turkish, Pakistani and Russian complicity in such an attack, by the way - because it ensures an even weaker Iranian position and greater levels of dependency upon its patrons.</blockquote><br />
<b>A Road to <strike>Damascus </strike>Tehran Conversion?</b> <br />
<br />
So there you have it. The world is lining up to support either an <a href="http://fearandloathingintheblogosphere.blogspot.com/2010/07/iran-israel-gulf-states-and-new-big.html">Israeli</a> or American strike on Iranian nuclear facilities. The question now is not about the strike, per se, but instead its about whether or not a solid long-term shift in regional politics will emerge in the Middle East, post strike. The Arab countries are <a href="http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/6019/uae-toughens-stance-over-irans-nuclear-ambitions">scared </a>and the Israelis are talking about resuming <a href="http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/5962/obama-netanyahu-set-stage-for-direct-mideast-peace-talks">peace talks</a>, setting the stage for a regional deal.<br />
<br />
I remain opposed to an American strike on Iran, in theory, but I'm always most strongly in favor of playing the hand we've been dealt. If planning to bomb Iran is Obama's way to <a href="http://fearandloathingintheblogosphere.blogspot.com/2010/04/planning-to-fail-in-afghanistan-pt-3.html">plan to fail in Afghanistan, </a>then so be it. Let's do it right - get the Arab's and Israelis to bury to hatchet, once and for all, and we'll have more than made up for the cost, both monetary and human, of destroying Iranian nuclear facilities.<br />
<br />
Given these developments, I have moved from "opposed" to "agnostic but skeptical" when it comes to either an Israeli or American strike on Iran - so long as it's part of a larger strategy to disengage from Afghanistan and cement a permanent Arab-Israeli peace in the Middle East. Given my dithers between American or Israeli jets delivering the goods, I order my preference:<br />
<br />
#1. Joint Arab-Israeli operation - with Saudi jets flying cover for Israel.<br />
<br />
Baring notorious Arab-Israeli cooperation, I shift to my preference to:<br />
<br />
#2. A multi-day American air campaign designed to destroy Iran's nuclear facilities, Republican Guard and key nodes of civilian infrastructure, including power plants and communications grid. America can get things done that Israel can't, and if we're going to strike let's minimize their ability to make trouble in the region by doing whatever we can to cripple or even destroy the Iranian state.<br />
<br />
#3. An Israeli strike. Ok, but less likely to be successful than an American strike.<br />
<br />
#4. An American or Israeli preemptive nuclear strike. From a tactical perspective, it gets the job done even more effectively then option #2 and but, oh boy, we better really have out ducks in a row WRT regional strategy before we open that door. <br />
<blockquote> </blockquote>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7252656799605026066.post-58355531808357943142010-07-11T03:34:00.003-04:002010-07-11T13:00:41.151-04:00Iran, Israel, the Gulf States and a New Big Bang: Considering Vertical and Horizontal Scenarios<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhyT0nLD-r9pdHD8peVyJANx7Rc_voTMSnGpIVg7fLxipU4c8RUT2bJqIthpcC-XtVyvRKHdlVh6G4A_6zKLJ_nFGoX2Unxrc4hucPM67WT61Wk1CasTZKMJ-v-lnwrY6YDWOwo9nSJfftD/s1600/Iran's+nuclear+.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="291" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhyT0nLD-r9pdHD8peVyJANx7Rc_voTMSnGpIVg7fLxipU4c8RUT2bJqIthpcC-XtVyvRKHdlVh6G4A_6zKLJ_nFGoX2Unxrc4hucPM67WT61Wk1CasTZKMJ-v-lnwrY6YDWOwo9nSJfftD/s320/Iran's+nuclear+.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br />
<br />
<i>"For by wise council, you shall make your war" -- Proverbs 24:6 </i><b> </b><br />
<br />
<b>Introduction</b><br />
<br />
The term "<a href="http://thomaspmbarnett.squarespace.com/glossary#BB">the big bang</a>" was first used by Tom Barnett in his Pentagon's New Map piece in <a href="http://www.esquire.com/ESQ0303-MAR_WARPRIMER?click=main_sr">Esquire </a>and was further explained in his<a href="http://www.amazon.com/Pentagons-New-Map-Twenty-First-Century/dp/0399151753"> book </a>of the same name. A quick rundown: a "big bang" is vertical scenario - for example, the war in Iraq - which sets off a series of horizontal changes in political realities of a given region. In the original article, Barnett was arguing that invading Iraq was a way to lay a big bang on the calcified political institutions of the Sunni Arab world. Barnett's core argument is that the U.S. can have a positive impact on the world when we construct horizontal strategies to deal with vertical shocks (even if we create those vertical shock ourselves) and that Iraq could have been/maybe still is an opportunity for the U.S. to redefine our relationship with both key Middle Eastern states and the rising new core of globalization, including India and China.<br />
<br />
Today a new "big bang" waits in the wings, this time to be led by the Middle East's regional Leviathan - Israel - and this later day big bang offers a chance for the United States, if we seize the opportunity, to redefine the politics of the Middle East for the next century. <br />
<br />
<br />
<b>The Coming Vertical Scenario in the Mid East: The Iranian-Israeli War</b> <br />
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I've been <a href="http://fearandloathingintheblogosphere.blogspot.com/2010/04/planning-to-fail-in-afghanistan-pt-3.html">pretty critical</a> of a potential <a href="http://fearandloathingintheblogosphere.blogspot.com/2010/06/planning-to-fail-in-afghanistan-pt-9.html">American/Israel</a> - for all intents and purposes there is little difference in this case - strike on Iran. <br />
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But Joe Liberman rarely <a href="http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5hWftF_qCfLVg-UT5wSkN8t-7RjiwD9GQ8RV80">calls me for advice about foreign policy</a> - too bad, because we'd agree on a lot (but not Iran) - and he currently has more influence than I do: <br />
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<blockquote>U.S. Senator Joseph Lieberman says there is a broad consensus in Congress that military force can be used if necessary to stop Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons.<br />
Lieberman cites a recent set of sanctions passed by Congress against Iran as a potential deterrent. But he insists that the goal of keeping Iran from becoming a nuclear power will be accomplished "through diplomatic and economic sanctions if we possibly can, through military actions if we must."</blockquote><br />
Liberman's comments, in a vacuum, might be disregarded were it not for a growing international cacophony calling for Israel to <a href="http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2010/jul/6/uae-ambassador-endorses-bombing-irans-nuclear-prog/?page=1">DO SOMETHING!</a>:<br />
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<blockquote>"I think it's a cost-benefit analysis," <a href="http://www.washingtontimes.com/topics/yousef-al-otaiba/">Mr. al-Otaiba</a> said. "I think despite the large amount of trade we do with <a href="http://www.washingtontimes.com/topics/islamic-republic-of-iran/">Iran</a>, which is close to $12 billion … there will be consequences, there will be a backlash and there will be problems with people protesting and rioting and very unhappy that there is an outside force attacking a Muslim country; that is going to happen no matter what." </blockquote><blockquote>"If you are asking me, 'Am I willing to live with that versus living with a nuclear <a href="http://www.washingtontimes.com/topics/islamic-republic-of-iran/">Iran</a>?,' my answer is still the same: 'We cannot live with a nuclear <a href="http://www.washingtontimes.com/topics/islamic-republic-of-iran/">Iran</a>.' I am willing to absorb what takes place at the expense of the security of the <a href="http://www.washingtontimes.com/topics/united-arab-emirates/">U.A.E.</a>"<br />
</blockquote>When a prominent Arab leader is publicly calling for a strike - implicitly endorsing an Israeli strike against a Muslim nation, well, that sound you hear is Israeli jets revving their engines. This news, taken along with news that the Saudis are willing to look the other way while Israel uses their airspace - maybe even their territory - well, that sound you hear are Saudi F-15s gearing up to cover Israel on their way in:<br />
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<blockquote><blockquote>Saudi Arabia has conducted tests to stand down its air defenses to enable Israeli jets to make a bombing raid on Iran’s nuclear facilities, <i>The Times</i> can reveal. </blockquote></blockquote><blockquote><blockquote>In the week that the UN Security Council imposed a new round of sanctions on Tehran, defense sources in the Gulf say that Riyadh has agreed to allow Israel to use a narrow corridor of its airspace in the north of the country to shorten the distance for a bombing run on Iran. </blockquote><blockquote>To ensure the Israeli bombers pass unmolested, Riyadh has carried out tests to make certain its own jets are not scrambled and missile defense systems not activated. Once the Israelis are through, the kingdom’s air defenses will return to full alert. </blockquote></blockquote><br />
<b>D-Day -1: Considering the Vertical Dimension</b><br />
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Before those jets take off, however, it's important to consider the long term implication of an Iranian-Israeli war. Of particular importance we should consider the chances that such a strike would be successful and what the costs of even a successful strike might be.<br />
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Fortunately, we don't have to engage in wild speculation when it comes to an Israeli strike on Iran, because the <a href="http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:Dmddbh-v8WwJ:csis.org/files/media/csis/pubs/090316_israelistrikeiran.pdf+csis+report+on+israeli+strike&cd=1&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=us&client=firefox-a">Center for Strategic and International Studies has published a fairly comprehensive study</a> on the issue.<br />
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First, let's take a look at the route:<br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjFK7b-cOAyWSdkTduh60cLUbyJvvTmgdNrmMPdzESwszqmXx2w7eMOl1yRJGp5Gu8AORGqe7UrDkLTekcwpsT3YabBMXZBfFInNW9sUS6Pjh3Go2e6JgigjmP14klsJm5lmKFa-KM7IORU/s1600/Strike+route.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="211" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjFK7b-cOAyWSdkTduh60cLUbyJvvTmgdNrmMPdzESwszqmXx2w7eMOl1yRJGp5Gu8AORGqe7UrDkLTekcwpsT3YabBMXZBfFInNW9sUS6Pjh3Go2e6JgigjmP14klsJm5lmKFa-KM7IORU/s400/Strike+route.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>At the time this report was written the CSIS determined that all three possible routes - southern, central and northern carried with them substantial political risk. Recent developments have eliminated many political risks. For example, although Israel's recent raid on the Turkish flotilla has virtually ruled out the northern route, the Gulf States are now clearly on board and I firmly believe the Obama administration - and by extension Iraq - have or will soon green light the operation, so the southern skies are clear for a strike anytime the mood strikes the IDF. Interestingly, the CSIS report lists the southern route as also having the lowest operational risk, which only supports my belief that what we see publicly WRT Middle East politics is so much theater and all the interested parties decided to hit the Shiite Devil many years ago.<br />
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The report goes on to suggest that an air-to-ground strike would push the Israeli air force to its limits and would require the deployment of the bulk of Israel's air asset, about 90 fighters, including all of their most advanced F-16i and F-15is and all four of their KC-135 tankers. It's not hard to imagine that Israel would be reluctant to commit all of their air assets to this one strike, no matter how big of a threat they considered Iran.<br />
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On the other hand, the report suggests that Israel could use up to 30 Jericho III ballistic missiles which would do an equivalent amount of damage to Iran's nuclear program, setting it back perhaps several years.<br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiDWaeBGP2qfCQk4TrsoXSc4ykMxa9CkTNftpYfkDchq0_Sh1I8g-biV0Ebj0iJuDwLVy6fTLnK10X8MTZZFVp9AizIlAS1Nyo6OABwaODpmY9ETxLiD86QaCOkLk_NBI6PDnuGXORV4KsG/s1600/Missile+Strike.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="230" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiDWaeBGP2qfCQk4TrsoXSc4ykMxa9CkTNftpYfkDchq0_Sh1I8g-biV0Ebj0iJuDwLVy6fTLnK10X8MTZZFVp9AizIlAS1Nyo6OABwaODpmY9ETxLiD86QaCOkLk_NBI6PDnuGXORV4KsG/s400/Missile+Strike.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><br />
When taken together; Israel's aircraft, ground based ballistic missiles and submarine based cruise missiles; combined with the Arab world seemingly announcing "clear skies" for an Israeli strike, all the pieces are in place for a vertical scenario. According the CSIS report, the best case scenario pushes Iran's nuclear program back several years. <br />
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<b>D-Day +1: Considering Horizontal Dimensions</b><br />
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It's worth considering, however, that even the best case scenario acknowledges that Iran will be able to rebuild, probably will, and will do so outside the confines of the Non-Proliferation Treaty, from which they will certainly withdraw. So even if the vertical shock - the strike itself - works like a charm, the world will still have to gird itself for the eventual Shiite bomb, as well as fallout - literal and figurative - from the strike itself.<br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEio3B1ZNOM4ejkFqJjMV_77dGJ5rgc7guFJ5A3mq98u01bBJDHrkF8Tc-Ti67ghBotbnvwlYGIP5vRIv5cDKIg6RQHHDhFXGz2YWjrpmzRQ20hMVFK-xYB_UgElmKMT66rVgwKH5KSXMN5n/s1600/Aftereffcets+.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="231" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEio3B1ZNOM4ejkFqJjMV_77dGJ5rgc7guFJ5A3mq98u01bBJDHrkF8Tc-Ti67ghBotbnvwlYGIP5vRIv5cDKIg6RQHHDhFXGz2YWjrpmzRQ20hMVFK-xYB_UgElmKMT66rVgwKH5KSXMN5n/s400/Aftereffcets+.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><br />
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When it comes to literal fallout, CSIS report is pretty pessimistic about the radiation related deaths. From page 90 of the report:<br />
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<blockquote>• Highest level of environmental damage is caused by a strike on the Reactor, Spent Fuel Storage and the Reprocessing Plants.<br />
• Actinides and Fission products are highly radioactive elements resulting from the fission process in the Reactor. Iodine-131, Stontium-90, Cesium-137 and Plutonium-239, have all been identified as the most damaging to human health.<br />
• Attacking the Bushehr Nuclear Reactor would release contamination in the form of radionuclides into the air.<br />
• Most definitely Bahrain, Qatar and the UAE will be heavily affected by the radionuclides.<br />
• Any strike on the Bushehr Nuclear Reactor will cause the immediate death of thousands of people living in or adjacent to the site, and thousands of subsequent cancer deaths or even up to hundreds of thousands depending on the population density along the contamination plume.</blockquote>The above quotes and map help illustrate the difference between a vertical and horizontal scenario.Thousands of deaths. As the map I posted above demonstrates, prevailing winds could easily carry contaminates over hundreds or even thousands of square miles, including over the territory of gulf states currently cheer leading for the strike. So even a perfect strike is going to set off political turmoil throughout the region, including in Afghanistan, where the Iranians are likely to take the gloves off - so -to-speak- when it comes to arming and training insurgents to kill American troops. Make no mistake, the soldiers, sailors, airmen and marines on the ground in central Asia will pay a tremendous price to support Israel's grand strategy - a price so high as to virtually guarantee an American withdraw.<br />
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<b>What Kind of Day Had it Been?</b><br />
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In a perfect world, Israel wouldn't be considering a strike on Iran. In a perfect world, or even one that makes a bit more sense then the one we live, the U.S. would have normalized with Iran shortly after 9/11 and leveraged that relationship to buttress out other regional goals, including stabilizing Afghanistan and undermining Saddam Hussein. In even a marginally more rational world, the U.S. would have sent representatives to Tehran - say Kissinger, Bush 41, James Baker and Bill Clinton - to make peace with Iran as we ramped up for the invasion of Iraq. In that world, Hussein might have taken the very generous exile offer that was on the table before him in 2003 and gone away quietly, lest he fall before the coming American/Iranian onslaught.<br />
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Unfortunately, we don't live in a perfect world. We live in a world with a government controlled by failed lawyers (successful lawyers can't afford a career in government) where few Americans know the differences between Shiites and Sunnis, Arabs and Persians or even <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c9PwWkV4HQ4">Iraq and Iran.</a> In this world, the control of U.S. domestic and foreign policy has always been at least marginally influenced by radical Christianists (not to be confused with actual Christians) and faux patriots who were always on the verge of slightly deranged policy choices detached from reality. In this world, we look for the least bad American policy choice and understand that formulating a sustainable "grand strategy" is beyond the ability of any American government that can get elected.<br />
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Given the reality and limitations we face, we must deal with situation at hand. It's likely that Israel will attack Iran and, for better or worse, the U.S. will get sucked into the melee. Stopping Israel at this point probably forces Obama to pay an untenable political price - domestically - and further add to his international reputation as a later day Hamlet - a man who has allowed the native hue of his resolution to be sicklied over by the pale cast of thought. By wasting so much time and diplomatic leverage pressing for sanctions on Iran Obama backed himself into this corner, but here we are, and now the time has come to deal with coming vertical shock by coming up with a horizontal scenario that not only makes best of an ugly situation, but actually set up both the United States and the world for positive developments.<br />
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<b>D-Day+2: A Horizontal Scenario for 2010</b> <br />
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If we accept that Israel will strike, and that she will strike with the implicit or explicit support of both the U.S. and the Arab world, then it is vital that the U.S., Israel, the Arab world, and the world at large get something out of the strike. Because no matter what Israel does Iran will get the bomb, but a post-strike Iran is going to be even more paranoid, less connected and less transparent than the Iran we deal with today, and they'll be nursing a serious national trauma in the form of thousands of casualties from the strike. So we don't get a non-nuclear Iran out of the deal, but here is a list of things we ought to get:<br />
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<b>#1. Rapprochement between Israel and Saudi Arabia.</b> This must be the sine qua non of American support for any military action. I would even support the U.S. moving a squadron of F-22s to Iraq and making it very clear that any Israeli or Saudi jet that overflies is being shot down unless we see these two countries bury their respective hatchets. Because whatever differences Israel and Saudi Arabia claim to have, its become pretty clear that in the real world their respective national strategies rarely diverge and increasingly we're seeing a convergence - which is terrific - but we can no longer let two of our strongest allies pretend to hate each other strictly for domestic political reasons. So if Israel and Saudi Arabia agree to recognize one another and begin a diplomatic relationship, the U.S. should agree to underwrite whatever they're planning WRT to Iran.<br />
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And if you think peace between Arabs and Israelis is a lot to ask....<br />
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#2.<b> Israel, Saudi Arabia and India get permanent seats on the U.N. Security Council.</b> For too long, the U.N. Security Council has been a the group that won WWII, and sooner or later the UNSC will have to grow, and this is as good a time as any. Each of the three countries I've selected is important in both their respective regions and in terms of the global economy. All three are also relatively stable in terms of both their governments and their borders, and all three have a serious interest in the stability of both the global economy and international security. In short, all three are perfect candidates for the first round of new admits to the UNSC since 1945 (not counting the ROC/PRC switch and the Soviet Union/Russia switch). <br />
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Given their nuclear status, population and increasingly prominent diplomatic and economic position in the world, its high time India joined China on the UNSC anyway. For the U.S. India is a largely selfish pickup, because bombing Iran probably means giving up on Afghanistan this round, which means we're going to have to use India to counterbalance Pakistan and as a base for deploying drones and Spec Ops forces to kill ISI assets (let us call things by their proper names: Taliban, Al Qeada = ISI asssets) in the region. Sponsoring them for UNSC membership is just our way of saying "you guys were right about Pakistan, we're sorry, let's be friends". <br />
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This whole mess has been at least partially driven by Israel's - not entirely unjustified - belief that the whole world is out to get them and that too many countries in the world today might be more or less indifferent to A-Jad following through on his promise to "wipe Israel off the map (the actual quote was probably a mis translation, but I digress). UNSC membership, when combined with a daring raid on Iran nuclear facilities and rapprochement with the House of Saud finally gives Israel the global respect and sense of stability they've been clambering for since 1948. They'll soon discover that with great power comes great responsibility, and also along with their new relationship with Saudi Arabia they'll have to deal with some lingering issues WRT both Gaza and West Bank, but resolving those issue is both inevitable and desirable if Israel is to develop global economic power commensurate with their regional military prowess.<br />
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Finally, Saudi Arabia may seem like an odd choice. They are neither the largest nor the most progressive Muslim nation, nor are they all that integrated into global economy - oil exports notwithstanding - and they certainly leave much to be desired when it comes to human rights. In the scenario at hand, however, the Saudi's are willing to stick their necks out, both to recognize Israel and to strike Iran, and they deserve something for that effort. Also, the strike on Iran, assuming it goes down as described in the CSIS report, will kill thousands of Muslims in Iran and maybe other countries in the region, so sponsoring the nation that houses Mecca for membership on the body that can veto U.N. action should go a long way to make clear that our beef is not with Islam. As a bonus, just as UNSC membership will elevate Israel and force them to deal with internal contradictions, UNSC membership will give a little push to a lot of the changes underway in Saudi society.<br />
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In order to make this plan happen, it would have to be a package. I'm not sure how a state gets a permanent seat on the UNSC, but I'd imagine a unanimous vote of all 5 current permanent members ought to be enough. While the 5 member may find reasons to object to any of the 3 new members individually, forcing them in as a package deal makes it difficult for anybody to object. France and the U.K. would be fairly easy to convince to go along with whatever the U.S. suggests, and Russia has a long-standing relationship with India and a developing relationship with Israel they would want to buttress. China will protest to India's ascension to permanent status, but recent history suggests that China rarely wants to be the odd man out on the UNSC, so once the three European (counting U.S. as "European") powers plus Russia are on board, China should come along. <br />
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<b>Conclusion</b> <br />
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In a perfect world, this wouldn't be an issue. In a perfect world, the U.S. and Israel would both realize the realpolitik advantages of an alliance with Iran and count on deterrence to keep their nuclear weapons in check. But we don't live in a perfect world, so we have to make do with the hand we've been dealt. As Israel and the Arab countries beat the drum for the ultimate vertical solution to Iran's nuclear program, it falls on the U.S. to demand a horizontal strategy that forever changes the politics of both the Middle East and South Asia. <br />
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<blockquote> <b> </b></blockquote><br />
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<blockquote> </blockquote>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com1Columbus, OH, USA39.9611755 -82.998794239.6980225 -83.46571320000001 40.224328500000006 -82.5318752tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7252656799605026066.post-42318236156773676352010-06-30T00:33:00.001-04:002010-06-30T00:34:55.660-04:00The War After Next<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://blog.kir.com/archives/images/pakistan_map.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="320" src="http://blog.kir.com/archives/images/pakistan_map.gif" width="320" /></a></div><br />
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Here is an excerpt from Seth G. Jones<a href="http://fearandloathingintheblogosphere.blogspot.com/2010/06/book-review-in-graveyard-of-empires-by.html"> In the Graveyard of E</a><a href="http://fearandloathingintheblogosphere.blogspot.com/2010/06/book-review-in-graveyard-of-empires-by.html">mpires</a>, pg. 257:<br />
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[Setting; a military outpost near the Pakistani border; 2005]<br />
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At 1 a.m., approximately forty insurgents came over the mountain passes from Pakistan and assaulted the Afghan observation post. <b>Pakistani military</b> observation posts to the east and southeast, at distances of a quarter and half mile, <b>provided supporting fire of heavy machine guns and rocket propelled grenades. </b>[EMPHASIS MINE]</blockquote><br />
Jones' book is rife with stories like the one above; stories of Afghan and American forces coming under attack from Pakistani army and Frontier Corps forces along the Af/Pak border. These stories are too common to ignore and are echoed by Amhed Rashid and David Killcullen. I think its time to begin to think about - not the next war, that one is apparently being scheduled with Iran - but the war after next. The war after we fail in Afghanistan and get attacked again. The war that will pit us directly against a nuclear armed south Asian state with 170 million citizens.<br />
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Pakistan is not America's ally. The sooner we deal with that reality the less painful the separation will be. <br />
<blockquote></blockquote>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7252656799605026066.post-32904766334867823232010-06-30T00:04:00.001-04:002010-06-30T00:06:16.656-04:00Book Review: In the Graveyard of Empires by Seth G. Jones<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3544/3672805014_8285070c9c.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="320" src="http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3544/3672805014_8285070c9c.jpg" width="210" /></a></div><br />
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<b>Synopsis</b><br />
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<a href="http://www.amazon.com/Graveyard-Empires-Americas-War-Afghanistan/dp/0393068986"><i>In the Graveyard of Empires</i></a>, by Georgetown University professor Seth G. Jones, is both a short history of Afghanistan's tendency to destroy imperial invaders and a top-down analysis of American and NATO nation building, state building and counter insurgency techniques since 9/11. <i>Graveyard </i>is tight, well written volume packed with enough background information to be useful to a general audience but also enough in depth reporting - especially interviews with high ranking officials in the U.S., Afghan and Pakistani governments - to be of interest to serious researchers. <br />
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<b>In the Graveyard of Cliches </b><br />
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When I first saw the title of Jone's book I winced at the thought of another armchair Alexander the Great trying to squeeze the tiniest drop of relevant advice about contemporary COIN from Kubla Kahn. <i>Graveyard</i>, however, quickly impressed me with its fast moving and easy narrative history of America's efforts to rebuild Afghan society with only a mercifully short - although mostly useless - side trip into the adventures of Alexander the Great and the Khans. Outside its brief allusions to ancient history, <i>Graveyard</i> is most tightly focused on Afghanistan's history from the mid 20th century to the present day, paying careful attention to the impact of the Soviet invasion, Pakistani intervention, Taliban/al Qaeda administration and Karzai/ISAF administration.<br />
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Although packed with information about Afghan and central and south Asian history, <i>Graveyard</i> is not primarily a history book but is instead an in depth analysis of America's post-9/11 Systems Administration efforts in both Afghanistan and south Asia. And Jones, like <a href="http://www.amazon.com/Graveyard-Empires-Americas-War-Afghanistan/dp/0393068986">Rashid</a>, focuses heavily on the opportunities lost during the period from the initial standing up of Karzai's government in 2002 until the legitimacy of the Afghan government began to collapse sometime in mid 2005. Like Rashid, Jones believes that a greater U.S. focus on Afghanistan - including more money and more troops - during this crucial period might have avoided the resurgence of the Taliban. As an aside, I've called that theory into question <a href="http://fearandloathingintheblogosphere.blogspot.com/2010/06/mission-accomplished-rethinking.html">here</a>, and although Jones lays out a strong case - pointing out, for example, that Afghanistan may be the most under-resourced sys admin effort sense the end of WWII - I'm still not 100% convinced that even more American troops would have helped. After all, absent the lessons learned about COIN in Iraq and the doctoral changes that occurred during Petraeus's and Co. post-OIF, pre-surge sojourn at Fort Leavenworth, American troops were given to (as Jones points out) heavy use of support fire and a 'door kicking' mentality WRT civilians that may have further fueled the insurgency. <br />
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Jones also pinpoints an American over focus on dealing with the nation-state of Afghanistan and under focus of engaging he Afghans on a tribal or district level. Jones makes a compelling case that the Taliban's horizontal organizational structure allows Talib commanders to exploit situationally specific tribal level grievances against Kabul in their quest to cleave the population away from the central government. Because the Taliban is fighting this war on the tribal level, Jones, argues, it follows that the U.S. must also focus on turning local tribes against the Taliban. Jones is long on strategy but short of specifics on how to do this, although he does endorse the Provincial Reconstruction Teams that were experimented with across 2008 and 09. It should be pointed out that in the Fall 2009 issue of Military Review Johnson and Mason wrote an article that was critical of PRT, arguing that provinces were a fairly modern construct in Afghan society and that the district - nor the province - was the building block of Afghan society and therefore engagement and reconstruction efforts should be aimed at that lower level. I discussed the PRTs in <a href="http://fearandloathingintheblogosphere.blogspot.com/2009/12/moral-warfare-in-southwest-asia-pt1.html">Moral Warfare in Southwest Asia</a>. <br />
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Ultimately, Jones accurately diagnoses the<a href="http://fearandloathingintheblogosphere.blogspot.com/2010/04/planning-to-fail-in-afghanistan-pt-5.html"> regional issues at play in Afghanistan</a>, especially WRT to Pakistan. And I fully agree with his read on the situation: there is no solution to Afghanistan that does not involve getting a buy-in from both India and Pakistan.<br />
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In conclusion, <i>Graveyard of Empires</i> is highly readable, informative and highly recommended to anyone who wants to know more about America's ongoing war in southwest Asia. <br />
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<b> Read it Alone, or as Part of the Trilogy</b> <br />
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Although its historical briefs provide more than enough background for a reader who is otherwise unfamiliar with either Afghan history or south Asian geo-politics, I think the reader would best be served by reading <i>Graveyard</i> as part of a 3 part series, with Steve Coll's <a href="http://www.amazon.com/Ghost-Wars-Afghanistan-Invasion-September/dp/1594200076/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1277870381&sr=1-1">Ghost Wars</a> providing in depth background about Pakistan's anti-Soviet campaign and Lawrence Wright's <a href="http://www.amazon.com/Looming-Tower-Qaeda-Road-Vintage/dp/1400030846/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1277870426&sr=1-1">The Looming Tower and the Road to 9/11 </a>providing the best narrative history of al Qaeda's rise and the fairly rapid melding of Mullah Omar's Quetta Shura Taliban and Bin Laden's "base" for global jihad.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7252656799605026066.post-34676251822664772602010-06-28T22:57:00.000-04:002010-06-28T22:57:04.074-04:00Planning to Fail in Afghanistan, pt 9: Plan B is All Kinetic All the Time<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://temi.repubblica.it/UserFiles/limes-heartland/Image/Maps/409_israel_strike_iran_500.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="213" src="http://temi.repubblica.it/UserFiles/limes-heartland/Image/Maps/409_israel_strike_iran_500.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br />
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I'm glad that the CIA analyst are at least as sharp as me. <br />
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Case in point, <a href="http://www.wired.com/dangerroom/2010/06/cia-chief-irans-bomb-two-years-away-sanctions-wont-work/">here is the director of the CIA on Iran WRT nukes: </a><br />
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<blockquote> Do you think the latest sanctions will dissuade the Iranians from trying to enrich uranium? “I think the sanctions will have some impact… Will it deter them from their ambitions with regards to nuclear capability? Probably not.” </blockquote><blockquote>“We think [the Iranians] have enough <a href="http://www.wired.com/dangerroom/2010/05/irans-nuke-fuel-deal-breakthrough-or-bogus/">low-enriched uranium</a> right now for two weapons. They do have to enrich it, fully, in order to get there. And we would estimate that if they made that decision, it would probably take a year to get there, probably another year to develop the kind of weapon delivery system in order to make that viable.”<br />
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Read More <a href="http://www.wired.com/dangerroom/2010/06/cia-chief-irans-bomb-two-years-away-sanctions-wont-work/#ixzz0sCqLKPPu" style="color: #003399;">http://www.wired.com/dangerroom/2010/06/cia-chief-irans-bomb-two-years-away-sanctions-wont-work/#ixzz0sCqLKPPu</a></div></blockquote><br />
<a href="http://fearandloathingintheblogosphere.blogspot.com/2010/06/failed-presidency-of-barack-obama.html">And here is me, on the same subject:</a><br />
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<blockquote> Iran will go nuclear, and if they become angry/frightened enough they will shoot, just like <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pakistan_and_weapons_of_mass_destruction#The_Development_of_Nuclear_Weapons">other countries</a> in the region have at moments of <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Shakti">high tension</a>.</blockquote><br />
But we're both in agreement - the sanctions are worthless and the Obama administration wasted 18 months on pointless diplomatic wrangling just to produce sanctions that will accomplish nothing. Thanks Mr. President, I'm sure there was <a href="http://fearandloathingintheblogosphere.blogspot.com/2010/06/planning-to-fail-in-afghanistan-pt-7.html">no more useful or pressing issue</a> to which you could have devoted time and diplomatic energy. <br />
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So, why would Leon Panetta show up on ABC's Sunday show just to tell everybody what any amateur foreign policy analyst from Columbus, Ohio (technically I guess I'm turning pro or at least semi pro in August when I start getting paid to study international relations) already knows? Maybe he was trying to lay the <a href="http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/middle_east/article7148555.ece">groundwork for the coming war with Iran:</a><br />
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<blockquote> Saudi Arabia has conducted tests to stand down its air defences to enable Israeli jets to make a bombing raid on Iran’s nuclear facilities, <i>The Times</i> can reveal. <br />
In the week that the UN Security Council imposed a new round of sanctions on Tehran, defence sources in the Gulf say that Riyadh has agreed to allow Israel to use a narrow corridor of its airspace in the north of the country to shorten the distance for a bombing run on Iran. <br />
</blockquote><blockquote>To ensure the Israeli bombers pass unmolested, Riyadh has carried out tests to make certain its own jets are not scrambled and missile defence systems not activated. Once the Israelis are through, the kingdom’s air defences will return to full alert. </blockquote><br />
Again, what did those sanctions accomplish? Oh, right, they made sure that Obama covered his ass so that he can <a href="http://fearandloathingintheblogosphere.blogspot.com/2010/04/planning-to-fail-in-afghanistan-pt-3.html">plan to fail in Afghanistan</a>. <br />
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<blockquote></blockquote>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7252656799605026066.post-44939285790225466002010-06-27T10:58:00.000-04:002010-06-27T10:58:56.971-04:00Step 1 in Afghanistan: Avoid the Rerun<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3429/3365886178_ffb0a46149.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="241" src="http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3429/3365886178_ffb0a46149.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br />
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One of the first problems Petraeus is going to have when take over Afghanistan is to set conditions which prevent a rerun of the dynamics that ruined Afghanistan across the 1990s.<br />
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To that end, he'll have to put a leash on <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2010/06/25/world/asia/25islamabad.html?ref=asia">Pakistan by hook or by crook</a>:<br />
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<blockquote>Pakistan is presenting itself as the new viable partner for Afghanistan to President <a class="meta-per" href="http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/people/k/hamid_karzai/index.html?inline=nyt-per" title="More articles about Hamid Karzai.">Hamid Karzai</a>, who has soured on the Americans. Pakistani officials say they can deliver the network of <a class="meta-per" href="http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/people/h/sirajuddin_haqqani/index.html?inline=nyt-per" title="More articles about Sirajuddin Haqqani.">Sirajuddin Haqqani</a>, an ally of <a class="meta-org" href="http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/organizations/a/al_qaeda/index.html?inline=nyt-org" title="More articles about Al Qaeda.">Al Qaeda</a> who runs a major part of the insurgency in Afghanistan, into a power-sharing arrangement. </blockquote><blockquote>In addition, Afghan officials say, the Pakistanis are pushing various other proxies, with General Kayani personally offering to broker a deal with the <a class="meta-org" href="http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/organizations/t/taliban/index.html?inline=nyt-org" title="More articles about the Taliban.">Taliban</a> leadership. <br />
Washington has watched with some nervousness as General Kayani and Pakistan’s spy chief, Lt. Gen. Ahmad Shuja Pasha, shuttle between Islamabad and Kabul, telling Mr. Karzai that they agree with his assessment that the United States cannot win in Afghanistan, and that a postwar Afghanistan should incorporate the Haqqani network, a longtime Pakistani asset. In a sign of the shift in momentum, the two Pakistani officials were next scheduled to visit Kabul on Monday, according to Afghan TV. </blockquote><blockquote>Despite General McChrystal’s 11 visits to General Kayani in Islamabad in the past year, the Pakistanis have not been altogether forthcoming on details of the conversations in the last two months, making the Pakistani moves even more worrisome for the United States, said an American official involved in the administration’s Afghanistan and Pakistan deliberations. </blockquote><br />
Translation: Hey Karzai, nice country you got there, be ashamed if something should <strike>exploit long standing ethic tensions</strike> happen to it. And Pakistan's support of the Pashtun insurgency (Taliban) is causing a lot of bad blood between ethnic groups, setting up a similar situation to the one the Soviets <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2010/06/27/world/asia/27afghan.html">left behind in 1989</a>:<br />
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The leaders of the country’s Tajik, Uzbek and Hazara communities, which make up close to half of Afghanistan’s population, are vowing to resist — and if necessary, fight — any deal that involves bringing members of the Taliban insurgency into a power-sharing arrangement with the government. </blockquote><blockquote>Alienated by <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2010/06/25/world/asia/25islamabad.html" title="Times article">discussions between President Karzai and the Pakistani military</a> and intelligence officials, minority leaders are taking their first steps toward organizing against what they fear is Mr. Karzai’s long-held desire to restore the dominance of ethnic Pashtuns, who ruled the country for generations. </blockquote><br />
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About a month ago, I predicted that Afghanistan was headed down the <a href="http://draft.blogger.com/goog_1621560259">same path as South Vietnam:</a><br />
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<blockquote>After the U.S. withdraws - and between the president's commitment to a July 2011 time-line and mounting U.S. casualties our withdraw is a near certainty - Afghanistan will suffer a similar fate to that of South Vietnam. Pakistan will play the role of both the Soviet Union and China as they fund, train and run logistics for whatever rough coalition of Taliban forces has the best chance of taking Kabul whole. Meanwhile, I expect the Karzai administration to continue to flounder through one scandal after another while they burn through whatever cash and equipment we leave when we go and ultimately share the fate of <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mohammad_Najibullah">Dr. Najibullah</a> at the hands of the Neo-Taliban.</blockquote><br />
So what can be done to avoid this outcome? How can Afghanistan be saved at this point? Here are a list of three possible options the Obama administration has right now:<br />
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1. Acquiesce to Pakistani control of Afghanistan, call it a victory and go home.<br />
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2. Acquiesce to Pakistani control of Afghanistan, announce that Pakistan has gotten what it wants and is now in control of Afghanistan and that any terrorist attacks from either Pakistani or Afghan territory will be considered a direct attack by the Pakistani military and will earn a nuclear response on Islamabad.<br />
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3. Work with Russia and India to rebuild the Northern Alliance, overthrow Karzai and hope that we can find an Uzbek or Tajik who will rule the Pashtuns with an iron fist.<br />
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4. Normalize relations with Iran.<br />
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My pick is options 3 and 4. One of the core advantages Pakistan has over the U.S. is that they are our primary route for getting supplies and troops into the country. This is because Pakistan has the best deep water port in the region. If we were to normalize relations with Iran, that would open up an entirely new route into Afghanistan would allow us to make life a lot harder on Pakistan, by declaring them a state sponsor of terror and assassinating every ISI or Pakistani Army agent we find in Afghanistan. We could also sponsor a U.N. security resolution demanding Pakistan acknowledge the Durand line as the border between Pakistan and Afghanistan, thus making Pakistani incursions across the border an act of war. <br />
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The challenge at that point would be to find someone to rule Afghanistan. I would imagine we should be able to find a Tajik general who would be willing to ruthlessly rule over the Pashtuns - maybe to the point of cleansing a large percentage of them - with an iron fist. While this may sound like a cruel solution to a westerner, its probably the only way Afghanistan will ever be brought under control. And, not for nothing, but what's at stake is the safety and security of a large percentage of Afghans, because the Taliban is the worst outcome, especially for females living in Afghanistan. But the Taliban is a Pashtun insurgency, so if the Pashtuns aren't ready to turn against them they might have to share in their fate. <br />
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<blockquote></blockquote>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7252656799605026066.post-2815314198752715472010-06-23T19:58:00.001-04:002010-06-23T20:48:54.206-04:00Planning to Fail Win in Afghanistan, pt 8: Independence Day Redux<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://l.yimg.com/eb/ymv/us/img/hv/photo/movie_pix/twentieth_century_fox/independence_day/_group_photos/bill_pullman8.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="215" src="http://l.yimg.com/eb/ymv/us/img/hv/photo/movie_pix/twentieth_century_fox/independence_day/_group_photos/bill_pullman8.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br />
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In this picture, president Bill Pullman is having a good Independence Day.<br />
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Barack Obama is also going to have a good Independence Day, this year.<br />
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As <a href="http://fearandloathingintheblogosphere.blogspot.com/2010/05/honorable-stalement-my-walter-cronkite.html">critical as I've been</a> of president <a href="http://fearandloathingintheblogosphere.blogspot.com/2010/06/planning-to-fail-in-afghanistan-pt-7.html">Obama's policies</a> in <a href="http://fearandloathingintheblogosphere.blogspot.com/2010/06/failed-presidency-of-barack-obama.html">Afghanistan</a> recently, appointing<a href="http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/2010/0623/Gen.-David-Petraeus-takes-over-in-Afghanistan-Will-it-make-a-difference"> General Petraeus to take command in Afghanistan</a> could be just the policy shake up - assuming that's not the only change that's being made - to change course and secure, if not a win, at least a "loose good" scenario that minimizes the chances that we'll have to rerun this particular episode of Pashtunwalli and Co. <br />
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If two changes follow in the coming days; publicly backing away from July 2011 and letting Petraeus hand pick the diplomatic team (better yet, bring in Ryan Crocker); then this move could really pay off in a longer term.<br />
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Let's see, however, how Petraeus deals with Pakistan. The good general has a reputation of being a amiable guy and with a great sense for PR - I found him to be both a great public speaker and legitimately funny guy when I saw him speak last year - but he's also a stone cold soldier, and his surge in Iraq included both "soft" elements of population security and hard core kinetics, like tracking down and killing AQI and Iranian special groups operating inside Iraq. So it'll be interesting to see how Petraeus might handle Pakistani or Iranian assets he catches in country - I'd not want to cross the border if I were a soldier in either of those countries armies right now, BTW.<br />
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As for Obama's handling of the situation, well, let's just say that this is why I don't (yet) regret my vote. Today, if only for a few minutes, Obama was the commander and chief. He took care of the McChrystal situation as quickly, gracefully and decisively as possible and he managed to do it all while avoiding asking any <a href="http://fearandloathingintheblogosphere.blogspot.com/2009/10/song-remains-same-obama-vs-pentagon.html">questions to which he should have already known the answer</a>.<br />
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All and all, this was a good day for Obama's presidency and for the future of America's military operations in Afghanistan. I'm more optimistic about the situation then I've been in a while. Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7252656799605026066.post-47234978819857985652010-06-22T21:15:00.000-04:002010-06-22T21:15:39.211-04:00Planning to Fail in Afghanistan, pt 7: Why We Fail<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.southbaymobilization.org/calendar/images/2006/06.0721.WhyWeFight_MarinesCrossingBridgeInBaghdad_531x344.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="207" src="http://www.southbaymobilization.org/calendar/images/2006/06.0721.WhyWeFight_MarinesCrossingBridgeInBaghdad_531x344.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br />
Reading through the <a href="http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/17390/119236?RS_show_page=1">Rolling Stone </a>piece on McChrystal's comments I was struck by one passage - it was something so prophane and shocking that I could scarcely believe what I was seeing, but it was right there, in black and white:<br />
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<blockquote>The assembled men may look and sound like a bunch of combat veterans letting off steam, but in fact this tight-knit group represents the most powerful force shaping U.S. policy in Afghanistan. While McChrystal and his men are in indisputable command of all military aspects of the war, <i><b> there is no equivalent position on the diplomatic or political side.</b></i> Instead, an assortment of administration players compete over the Afghan portfolio: U.S. Ambassador Karl Eikenberry, Special Representative to Afghanistan Richard Holbrooke, National Security Advisor Jim Jones and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, not to mention 40 or so other coalition ambassadors and a host of talking heads who try to insert themselves into the mess, from John Kerry to John McCain. This diplomatic incoherence has effectively allowed McChrystal's team to call the shots and hampered efforts to build a stable and credible government in Afghanistan. "It jeopardizes the mission," says Stephen Biddle, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations who supports McChrystal. "The military cannot by itself create governance reform." [ITALICS ADDED BY ME]</blockquote><br />
I lied before when I said this was shocking. Its not. But its a god damn shame none-the-less. And it answers every question that every historian is going to ask about Afghanistan someday, and every question some future president is going to ask as he goes to survey some smoking crater somewhere in the U.S. and ponder his response. <br />
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It's too bad we can't get Tea Parties organized to give a damn about Afghanistan or America's neglect when it comes to assembling a coalition to win in Afghanistan, but I just don't see it happening. Whomever said that war was just natures way of teaching Americans about geography really hadn't spent much time with "Americans"(outside politics and academia, perhaps).<br />
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If McChrystal resigns tomorrow - and I think he has to - he should do so with his head held high. Better to walk out the front door of the White House then get thrown under the proverbial bus when Obama starts sinking in 2012. I think this Rolling Stone interview was a bone headed move but I also think General Stanley McChrystal has served his country honorably for over 30 years and has more than earned both his retirement and the nation's gratitude.<br />
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Our military did not fail us. Our civilian leaders failed them. <br />
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</blockquote>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7252656799605026066.post-41738460409170528952010-06-22T04:50:00.001-04:002010-06-22T20:52:52.456-04:00Planning to Fail in Afghanistan, pt 6: Independence Day<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/b/bb/Independence_day_movieposter.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="320" src="http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/b/bb/Independence_day_movieposter.jpg" width="226" /></a></div><br />
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Barack Obama is about to have either the best or worst Independence Day of any president since <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Independence_Day_%28film%29">Bill Pullman.</a><br />
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Fortunately for the people of Earth, this bad (could it be good?) day will not be brought about by a genocidal war against extraterrestrials, but instead by a general giving way too much access to a <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/06/22/AR2010062200813.html">Rolling Stone reporter:</a><br />
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<blockquote>The profile in Rolling Stone magazine, titled the "Runaway General," is certain to increase tension between the White House and Gen. Stanley McChrystal. </blockquote><blockquote>It also raises fresh questions about the judgment and leadership style of the commander Obama appointed last year in an effort to turn around a worsening conflict. <br />
McChrystal and some of his senior advisors are quoted criticizing top administration officials, at times in starkly derisive terms. An anonymous McChrystal aide is quoted calling national security adviser James Jones a "clown." </blockquote><blockquote>Referring to Richard Holbrooke, Obama's senior envoy to Afghanistan and <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/world/countries/pakistan.html?nav=el" target="">Pakistan</a>, one McChrystal aide is quoted saying: "The Boss says he's like a wounded animal. Holbrooke keeps hearing rumors that he's going to get fired, so that makes him dangerous." <br />
On one occasion, McChrystal appears to react with exasperation when he receives an e-mail from Holbrooke, saying, "Oh, not another e-mail from Holbrooke. I don't even want to read it." </blockquote><blockquote>U.S. ambassador to Afghanistan Karl Eikenberry, a retired three-star general, isn't spared. Referring to a leaked cable from Eikenberry that expressed concerns about the trustworthiness of Afghan President Hamid Karzai, McChrystal is quoted as having said: "Here's one that covers his flank for the history books. Now if we fail, they can say, 'I told you so.'" </blockquote>So, dose this mean that McChrystal feels corruption in the Afghan government has no impact on his counter insurgency efforts?<br />
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In any case, this could lead to Obama having either the best or worst 4th of July of his life. If he turns this into another White House versus the military battle, and if he gives McChrystal and Co. time to ramp up their P.R. efforts this will be Obama's worst 4th of July ever. It will be one more nail in the coffin of the Obama presidency and possibly even set up some general to run for president in 2012.<br />
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If, on the other hand, Obama steps up and promptly takes control - i.e., asks McChrystal for his resignation - this could be a positive development. This could allow Obama the opportunity to reassess (again, but I digress) his commitment to Afghanistan and, as I've argued, what we need now is not a series of "re commitments", but instead a <a href="http://fearandloathingintheblogosphere.blogspot.com/2010/06/failed-presidency-of-barack-obama.html">Mad Man who demonstrates that everything everyone knows about American foreign policy is wrong. </a><br />
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A re-re-assessment at this point will lead to the Pakistanis stepping up their game and may tilt Karzai even closer to the Pakistanis, but those events are feit accomplis at this point anyway. Republicans will scream bloody murder at Obama but they too will do that no matter what the president does in Afghanistan, so why not give them something to crow about.<br />
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Update: McChrystal has been recalled to D.C. per the BBC.<br />
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Update 2: My idea; fire McChrystal, then fire Eikeberry, then fire Biden and make Clinton VP.<br />
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Update 3: CNN reports that McChrystal has <a href="http://news.blogs.cnn.com/2010/06/22/latest-mcchrystal-developments/?hpt=T1">offered his resignation</a>.<br />
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Good, now Obama can get back to planning to fail in Afghanistan. <br />
<div class="iblogger-footer"><br />
<div style="font-size: 10px; text-align: right;">[Posted with <a href="http://illuminex.com/iBlogger/index.html">iBlogger</a> from my iPhone]</div><br />
</div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7252656799605026066.post-69274540394101753362010-06-22T00:32:00.000-04:002010-06-22T00:32:25.281-04:00Mission Accomplished? Rethinking the strategic assumptions of the Bush Administration<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://politicaldemotivation.files.wordpress.com/2008/03/bush_mission_accomplished.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="301" src="http://politicaldemotivation.files.wordpress.com/2008/03/bush_mission_accomplished.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br />
<b>Introduction:</b> <br />
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Tom Barnett had a<a href="http://www.thomaspmbarnett.com/globlogization/2010/6/16/winning-in-iraq-what-else-do-you-call-it.html"> post last week</a> that contrasted America's apparent post-surge success in Iraq with the rapidly deteriorating situation in Afghanistan. Looking at the two situations begs an interesting question: was George W. Bush's "gut" instinct about the differences between Iraq and Afghanistan in 2002-03 correct?<br />
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<b>Taking Our Eye off the Ball?</b><br />
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In his book <i><a href="http://www.amazon.com/Descent-into-Chaos-Building-Afghanistan/dp/0670019704">Descent Into Chaos</a></i> Pakistani-born journalist Ahmed Rashid lays out a pretty strong case that president Bush took his eyes off Afghanistan at a crucial point - mid 2002 - a point when, according to Rashid's sources in various NGOs, the United States had real opportunity to bring lasting peace to Afghanistan if only we had injected more troops/money/attention.<br />
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But the Bush administration had other ideas. By the middle of 2002 the U.S. was ramping up pressure on Saddam Hussein and plans were in place to take Hussein and his regime out. Critics of the Bush administration are fond of suggesting that this shift in focus, from south-central Asia to the Middle East was a major error, brought about by an irrational obsession with Hussein and "weapons of mass destruction". This strategic blunder - so the story goes - wasted American lives in both Iraq and Afghanistan and directly contributed to the resurgence of the Taliban.<br />
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<b>Charging the Mound </b><br />
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What I describe above is more or less conventional wisdom and there is every indication that even president Obama subscribes to this strategic analysis. But what if it is wrong? What if the Bush administration began to suspect the futility of dealing with Afghanistan sometime around the so-called "<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Airlift_of_Evil">Airlift of Evil"</a>, that, assuming the U.S. had been ignorant of Pakistan's complicity with the Taliban, would have removed all doubt. So even in 2001 the U.S. was forced to deal with the fact that we were fighting an enemy - aka the Taliban - who had been functioning as a wholly owned subsidiary of our new best friend - Pakistan. Further, events between India and Pakistan across 2002 would have been a wake up call to anyone paying attention: this fight is not about the Taliban. This fight is about two nuclear armed South Asian states that house about 1/5th of humanity and over a quarter of a billion Muslims between them.<br />
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Once the Bush administration realized just how touchy the situation in Afghanistan was, and just how unlikely it was that anything resembling victory was even possible in Afghanistan, the administration began casting about for another project; something far less intractable, preferably in the Middle East proper (as the hijackers had been Sunni Arabs, not Pashtuns or Pakistanis). Iraq, which had been playing its cat and mouse games with the U.N. weapons inspectors for years provided as good a candidate for an experiment in "democratic peace theory" as anywhere else.<br />
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From that perspective then, Bush didn't "take his eye off the ball" - to continue the baseball analogy - he charged the mound. He changed the rules. "We can't win in Afghanistan because Pakistan won't let us? Fine, we'll go win somewhere else and Pakistan can reap what they sewed in Afghanistan."<br />
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<b>The Lasting After Effects of Bush's Cynicism</b> <br />
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To say that the invasion of Iraq - and, by extension - the elevation of Iraq to a priority versus Afghanistan dose not excuse the Bush administration's behavior in the years that followed. There was absolutely no excuse for going into Iraq under staffed and under resourced or for telling the American people that Iraq would be a cake walk. In retrospect, I do regret my vote in 2004, because the gross incompetence of the first Bush administration should have earned him a one term presidency.<br />
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But both things can be true: Bush was a bad president; he was also right about Iraq versus Afghanistan in 2002. He was right that Afghanistan would turn out to be un-winnable. But the Rovian cynicism and political calculations required him to maintain a troop presence in Afghanistan and even as he was fighting a good fight to get the resources for the surge in Iraq he continued to add more troops to the Af-Pak theater and expand the war - via drones - into Pakistani territory. Bombing Pakistan makes sense. In fact, clearing the tubes on a couple of boomers into Islamabad probably would have been the best strategy on 9/12 2001, rather than getting ourselves sucked into the regional grudge match that is Afghanistan. But bombing Pakistan makes a lot more sense when we don't depend on them to get supplies to our troops and when we don't have troopers stationed close to the areas we are bombing - thus putting Americans within rifle range of pissed off villagers.<br />
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<b>What Would George Bush (circa 2002) Do?</b> <br />
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The George Bush of 2002 felt that Afghanistan was best left to special forces, air strikes and former Northern Alliance warlords turned "governors". Before he was overtaken by event; overwhelmed by political opponents calling Afghanistan "the good war" versus Iraq as "the dumb war", before all of that happened George Bush had solid instincts about what was possible in south-central Asia versus what was possible in the heart of Sunni Arab world. Looking at the Middle East today we see economic growth in Jordon and Dubai; we see peace in Iraq and social reforms in Saudi Arabia. We see that the Bush of 2002 was more right than wrong. Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7252656799605026066.post-74767412146400761262010-06-10T20:56:00.002-04:002010-06-10T21:00:45.186-04:00The Failed Presidency of Barack Obama<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://scottthong.files.wordpress.com/2008/04/bushphone.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="293" src="http://scottthong.files.wordpress.com/2008/04/bushphone.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br />
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I don't regret <a href="http://fearandloathingintheblogosphere.blogspot.com/2008/09/my-endorsment-for-2008-barack-obama.html">my vote</a>.<br />
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Yet.<br />
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But it's becoming increasingly apparent that Barack Obama is racking up a record fit to be mocked by both Jimmy Carter and Lyndon Johnson. If Obama has decided that he will be a failed foreign policy president with a domestic "win" on his record - ala LBJ - well, so be it, but the least he could do would be to adopt a "first do no harm" approach to foreign policy by essentially doing nothing at all. Instead, Obama is actually making things worse.<br />
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<b>On Iran </b><br />
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Congratulations, 18+ months of <strike>begging</strike> <strike>cajoling </strike>diplomacy have earned a <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/world/middle_east/10280356.stm">sanctions regime</a> that is set up to become just as big a <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2010/06/08/world/middleeast/08sanctions.html">joke as the current sanctions regime</a> which has been in place for many years. <br />
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Well, at least this new sanctions regime will stop Iran from acquiring modern anti-aircraft missiles from Russia, right?<br />
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<a href="http://defensetech.org/2010/06/10/russia-says-s-300-sam-sale-to-iran-will-go-through-despite-sanctions/#comment-203227">Nope.</a> <br />
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<blockquote>Conflicting statements from Russian officials on whether or not it will scrap the pending S-300 surface-to-air missile system sale to Iran because of new United Nations sanctions over Tehran’s continued pursuit of nuclear weapons. First, an “industry source” said the S-300 deal was off. Now, Russia’s Foreign Ministry says the sale is still on. Israel has stated publicly that the sale of S-300s to Iran is a red line that would prompt an Israeli military attack.</blockquote><br />
So, let's review. Obama has:<br />
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<a href="http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/middle_east/article7142176.ece">Not stopped Iran from getting the bomb</a>. <br />
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Not stopped Iran from getting advanced Russian anti-aircraft missiles. <br />
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And probably not stopped Israel from wanting to attack Iran. <br />
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Great, mister president, that was an awesome use of 18 months and god knows how many face-to-face <strike>pathetic groveling sessions</strike> meetings with world leaders who have more important things to do.<br />
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But hey, at least Obama didn't alienate any allies in the process or <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/06/08/AR2010060805406.html?hpid=topnews">anything</a>:<br />
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<blockquote>Now, even as the U.N. Security Council prepares to impose its fourth round of sanctions on Iran with a vote slated for Wednesday, Tehran is demonstrating remarkable resilience, insulating some of its most crucial industries from U.S.-backed financial restrictions and building a formidable diplomatic network that should help it withstand some of the pressure from the West. </blockquote><blockquote>Iranian leaders are meeting politicians in world capitals from Tokyo to Brussels. They are also signing game-changing energy deals, increasing their economic self-sufficiency and even gaining seats on international bodies. </blockquote><blockquote>Iran's ability to navigate such a perilous diplomatic course, analysts say, reflects both Iranian savvy and U.S. shortcomings as up-and-coming global players attempt to challenge U.S. supremacy, and look to Iran as a useful instrument. <br />
"We are very proud of our diplomacy, although we are mainly benefiting from mistakes made by the United States and its allies," said Kazem Jalali, a key member of the Iranian parliament's commission on national security and foreign policy. "We are using all our resources to exploit these weaknesses." </blockquote><br />
Ok, screw them anyway. It's not like the U.S. is committed to any sort of ongoing military operation where we might need allies or anything.<br />
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Except Afghanistan.<br />
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And Iraq.<br />
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And <a href="http://fearandloathingintheblogosphere.blogspot.com/2010/05/time-for-pla-to-dissolve-kfr.html">North Korea</a>..<b> </b><br />
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<b>On Afghanistan</b><br />
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The COIN strategy appears to <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2010/06/10/world/asia/10taliban.html?ref=world">be faltering</a>:<br />
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<blockquote>Government assassinations are nothing new as a Taliban tactic, but now the Taliban are taking aim at officials who are much more low-level, who often do not have the sort of bodyguards or other protection that top leaders do. Some of the victims have only the slimmest connections to the authorities. The most egregious example came Wednesday in Helmand Province, where according to Afghan officials the insurgents executed a 7-year-old boy as an informant.</blockquote><br />
Man, if we can't even protect friendly village and local leaders, what the hell are we still doing in Afghanistan? <br />
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Now, to be fair, Afghanistan is very complex situation and the Bush administration took its eye off the ball in Afghanistan before Barack Obama was even a senator. Still, Obama's plan to <a href="http://fearandloathingintheblogosphere.blogspot.com/2010/05/honorable-stalement-my-walter-cronkite.html">fail in Afghanistan</a> remains overly Afghan centric, and at least some of that diplomatic energy wasted on those absolutely pointless Iran sanctions could have been used to find more partners to either help in Afghanistan or at least contain the worst exports from Pakistan's tribal regions. <br />
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<b>A Set of Strategically Tone Deaf Priorities </b><br />
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I've written that Obama has a <a href="http://fearandloathingintheblogosphere.blogspot.com/2009/10/song-remains-same-obama-vs-pentagon.html">nasty tendency to ask questions</a> to which he should already know the answer. So far, his whole foreign policy has been based on asking for things that he should have known he was never going to get. For example, while he was considering how many more troops to send to Afghanistan, he was also <a href="http://hotair.com/archives/2009/12/18/china-snubs-obama-in-copenhagen/">haranguing China's president</a> Hu about <strike>economic growth </strike><strike>ManBearPig</strike> global warming rather than asking Hu to cooperate with U.S. efforts on Afghanistan. Because the Chinese are already nibbling around the edges of both peace building and investment in Afghanistan there was far more room for agreement on that issue as opposed to hoping they would sign on for "binding" limits on CO2 emissions. <br />
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You can take everything said above about China and replace China with India and its just as true. <br />
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Meanwhile, the U.S. continues to take a schizo-frantic approach to distinguishing between friends and enemies in the region. We bomb our <a href="http://www.wired.com/dangerroom/2009/02/kilcullen-says/">"friends"</a> while they support our <a href="http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/asia/article5747696.ece">enemies</a> and while we continue to ramp up the tension with possible allies (see: Iran).<br />
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Then the KFR provokes and we are left dumbstruck, because Obama has been arguing with China and Russia about Iran (oh China, will you please poke your largest energy supplier with a large stick so we can stop a feit accompli in Iran's acquisition of a nuclear capacity?) rather than negotiating an end to the world's single greatest criminal enterprise - a country that actually has nuclear weapons and has shown no<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Orchard"> compunction what-so-ever about exporting to other rouge states</a>. <br />
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<b>Conclusion:Mad-Man Diplomacy, Dangerous Nations and Obama's Only Term</b> <br />
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The problems that president Obama have are exasperated by several factors. He's backed himself into several rhetorical holes, on Iran and Afghanistan, for example, and so it will be hard for him to walk these situations back. Afghanistan will, unfortunately, end the same way Vietnam did, but with drones playing the role of off-shore balancer. Pakistan will be getting their backyard playground back and they will return to planning for their regularly scheduled war with India. Iran will go nuclear, and if they become angry/frightened enough they will shoot, just like <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pakistan_and_weapons_of_mass_destruction#The_Development_of_Nuclear_Weapons">other countries</a> in the region have at moments of <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Shakti">high tension</a>.<br />
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And Obama will be returning to Chicago in 2013, despondent over his wasted potential. He won't be alone in his disappointment, but he made his choices. <br />
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With this in mind, the next president should adhere to a variant of Richard Nixon's <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Madman_theory">Mad-Man Theory,</a>except instead of trying to convince the world the U.S. would attack anybody at any time he or she should set out to convince the powers that be that the U.S. might normalize or break relations with various countries at any time. Specifically, the next president should find as many excuses to insinuate that he's prepared to break relations with Pakistan as possible. In a similar vein, he should be prepared to insinuate - and then follow through immediately - with normalization with Iran. Right now Russia Turkey and Pakistan enjoy all the fruits of both our strategic limitations and Iran's situation as an international pariah. Russia, Turkey and Pakistan want nothing more than an Iranian client state, stripped of all international connectivity and forced to conduct business through Russian/Turkish and Pakistani smugglers. These guys will be popping popcorn and laughing with glee as Israel destroys Iran's nuclear capacity - I'd not rule out Turkish, Pakistani and Russian complicity in such an attack, by the way - because it ensures an even weaker Iran position and greater levels of dependency upon its patrons.<br />
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But think of the alternative. Imagine a world where Turkey, Russia and Pakistan watch in horror as James Baker, Henry Kissinger and Bill Clinton step off a plane in Tehran and shake hands with A-Jad and his merry men. Yes, the Iranian leader (ship) is a thugocracy, but so was Mao and that didn't stop Nixon from securing a relationship with China, for similar strategic reasons. And the only thing that happened when Nixon went to China was that the Russians rushed to negotiate a series of arms control treaties, because they didn't want to be outbid by the Chinese. Oh, and a few things changes in China after that as well, or so I've heard. <br />
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Now, its important to realize that Iran is highly unlikely to negotiate away their nuclear stockpile, and we shouldn't ask that of them. It will be a lot more fun watching Russia and Pakistan figure out how to live with a nuclear Iran, and Turkey wants an excuse to get the bomb anyway, so we might as well embrace the future. Normalization between Iran and the U.S. will happen. It can happen now or it can happen after the next 9/11 or Mumbai when the the world comes together to dissolve Pakistan. Let's get proactive and maybe, just maybe, we can prevent the next 9/11.<br />
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In any case, the next president should make it a goal to come into office with as few international promises as possible. Leave global warming completely off the table and whatever you do don't wade into the morass that is Gaza and the West Bank. Stick to throwing strategic elbows - so to speak- by slapping down useless and dangerous allies like Pakistan and suddenly getting chummy with formerly blood enemies like Iran. And the day after the trip to Tehran, call China and let them know you'd love to talk to Kim. Tell him it will be two party talks. See if the possibility of the U.S. throwing the chess board into the air and openly negotiating with the KFR doesn't make China decide to hasten Kim's exit from this mortal coil (handle Iran first because negotiating with the KFR will bear no fruit, rack up a win before you go for something truly crazy). <br />
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America's fundamental strategic issue right now is stagnation and predictability. When GWB was president he tried to remind people that the U.S. can occasionally bob and weave with the best of them (see: Operation Iraqi Freedom) but his decisions have left his successor tied down in Afghanistan and Iraq. To make America again relevant is to make America again unpredictable, make us again Robert Kagan's Dangerous Nation.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0